Here’s Who Leads In The Key 2024 Election Battlegrounds

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, according to a new poll Wednesday that shows single-digit contests in all seven battleground states—and margins of less than a percentage point in three states.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at Divine Faith Ministries International on … [+] Oct. 20 in Jonesboro, Georgia.

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Key Facts

The two candidates are essentially even—49.1% Harris and 48.5% Trump—among likely voters across all seven swing states, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll taken Oct. 16-20 (the margin of error across all swing states was one point).

Michigan: Harris’ 49.6%-46.5% edge marks the largest lead of any state polled by Bloomberg, but it’s still within the four-point margin of error—and it’s similar to Harris’ 49%-46% lead in Quinnipiac’s polling after trailing Trump 50%-47% earlier this month. Harris is up by just 0.7 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Pennsylvania: Harris leads 50%-48.2% according to Bloomberg, and she had a 49%-47% advantage in a Washington Post-Schar School poll earlier this week. Still, Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Georgia: Trump leads 49.9%-48.4% in Bloomberg’s poll and 47%-43% in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters out Tuesday, while the Washington Post-Schar poll found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump is up 49.6%-48.5% in Bloomberg’s polling and 50%-47%, in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while Harris had a two-point lead, 49%-47%, in a Quinnipiac poll. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 0.8-point advantage.

Nevada: Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% according to Bloomberg, but Trump is ahead 47%-46% in an AARP poll released Tuesday, and they’re tied at 48% in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while a Wall Street Journal poll released Oct. 11 found Trump up by 5 points. Harris leads by 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Arizona: Bloomberg reports a razor-thin 49.1%-48.8% Harris lead, but Trump is ahead by three points—49%-46%—in the Washington Post-Schar School poll, though the Journal poll found Harris up by two points, 47%-45%. Trump is up 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: The state is nearly as close as it can get, as Trump is up 48.3%-48% in Bloomberg’s poll and the two candidates are tied at 48% according to Quinnipiac, while Harris holds a 50%-47% edge in the Washington Post-Schar poll. Harris is up 0.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Big Number

0.6. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 1.8 points.

Key Background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

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Here’s Who Leads In The Key 2024 Election Battlegrounds