Nato officials fear a combination of fatigue, the looming US election and hefty costs involved in providing military aid could see momentum shift irreversibly towards Russia in its war against Ukraine in the coming weeks, making a victory on Kyiv’s terms impossible.
Despite the gravity of the situation, sources at Nato headquarters in Brussels told i they are unable to get the full attention of key decision makers in the alliance, raising fears that Vladimir Putin will take advantage of the looming presidential vote and winter months to cement his gains in the country.
For months diplomats have been briefing that Ukraine is slowly losing the war and that the consequences of its defeat would be catastrophic for Western leaders. Beyond the moral case of supporting a country currently under illegal invasion, there are fears among diplomatic and military circles Ukraine’s loss could trigger further crisis, ranging from the spiraling costs of Russian troops on Nato’s borders to more Ukrainian refugees entering Europe.
“These are very dark days in Ukraine, and for now, there is only further darkness on the horizon,” says Jade McGlynn, a researcher from King’s College London based in eastern Ukraine. “If we want to see any change to this trajectory, there needs to be a strategy in the West, a realisation of the reality of the war and its toll on Ukraine.”
Multiple European security sources say that one of their greatest fears at the start of the war has become a reality: Ukraine fatigue.
A case in point occurred last week, when Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled his anticipated “victory plan” to Ukraine’s parliament and Nato leaders. The response from Ukraine’s Western allies was muted, including from the US, which is currently holding out on a key pillar – allowing Ukraine to use its long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been battling for permission to use US weapons to strike inside Russia (Photo: Ukrainian presidential press office via AP)
The response to reports that North Korea has sent 1,500 troops to Russia and could send up to 10,000 more has also been underwhelming. South Korean intelligence officials say these troops are poised to join the offensive in Ukraine alongside Russian soldiers.
While 1,500 is small compared to nearly 700,000 Russian troops killed or injured since the start of the war, it provides a demoralising contrast to Ukraine’s pleading with allies for permission to use weapons that have already been provided, sources say.
Sources inside Nato are frustrated that despite the dire situation on the ground, Western governments, including alliance members, are far from reaching a consensus on a strategy, even for the coming months.
“There is unquestionably a need for allies, who are briefed on the situation, to do more, faster,” says a Nato diplomat, referencing the danger of Russia making significant gains in eastern Ukraine this winter. However, the diplomat continues, there is still wishful thinking that “some other group of people in another room will fix it”.
The reasons for this heel dragging relate, in part, to the US election on 5 November. While the policies of the next president are significant to Ukraine, of more immediate concern is what happens if the result is so close as to be contested. A repeat of 2020’s post-election chaos would shift international attention to the US narrative, leaving a potential vacuum for Putin and his allies.
The growing crisis in the Middle East stemming from Israel’s war against Hamas in retaliation for the 7 October attack has become a major foreign policy focus for the Biden administration. Adam Thomson, Britain’s former permanent representative to Nato, told i that political hesitancy in European capitals also relates to the hefty political and financial price tags attached to committing to a solution.
“At a political level, you have [Prime Minister Viktor] Orban in Hungary supporting Putin, you have [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan in Turkey hedging his bets. You have the southern states more worried about migration. Even in Western Europe, the French and German positions are so different,” he said.
“There is a lot of heavy paddling going on under the surface, attempting to push allies in the right direction,” Mr Thomson adds, “but the time may have come to tell the public just how dangerous the situation is and prepare them for even more spending.”
This winter, as Russia convenes its allies, diplomats and officials hope European states will realise the severity of the situation and stop, as one Western defence source put it, “walking to the other side of the street to avoid a mugging in progress, rather than running to help”.