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Anchor: The International Monetary Fund(IMF) has released optimistic forecasts, placing its global growth outlook at three-point-two percent and saying much of the world has managed to contain inflation. But it warns that downside risks, including the war in the Middle East, could raise oil prices.
Kim Bum-soo has more on the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook.
Report:
[Sound bite: IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas]
“Let me start with the good news. The battle against inflation is almost won …”
The International Monetary Fund(IMF) says most countries have managed to contain inflation and the world economy remains resilient, offering steady global economic growth projections of three-point-two percent for 2024 and 2025.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas introduced the latest World Economic Outlook, released Tuesday.
[Sound bite: IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas]
“After peaking at nine-point-four percent year on year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to three-point-five percent by the end of next year, and in most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets. Now, inflation came down while the global economy remained resilient. Growth is projected to hold steady at three-point-two percent in 2024 and 2025.”
Although it predicts the decline in inflation without a global recession, the IMF is now concerned about rising geopolitical risks.
[Sound bite: IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas]
“Now, despite the good news, on inflation, risks are now tilted to the downside. This downside risks include an escalation in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, which could cause serious risks for commodity markets.”
The global economy has now entered a world dominated by supply shocks from climate, health and geopolitical tensions, according to the IMF, which also warned against trade wars and protectionism.
The U.S. economy is expected to cool down through 2025, while other advanced economies will rebound despite a slight downward revision for China’s growth for this year.
While the government says the economy is showing signs of recovery on the back of solid demand from overseas, the IMF maintained its growth outlook for the export-driven economy at two-point-five percent for this year and two-point-two percent for 2025.
Kim Bum-soo, KBS World Radio News.