Hussein Ibish: “One year after Hamas’s attack on southern Israel, both sides believe they are winning. The war in Gaza appears poised to continue indefinitely and probably expand, to the apparent delight of both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Each must be surveying the wreckage in the region and anticipating the dark days ahead with determination and confidence. Each must think he is playing a sophisticated long game that the other will lose.
But “Hamas is far from being destroyed; its fighters are popping up in areas across the Gaza Strip that months ago the Israeli military had declared pacified and abandoned. Israel is now playing whack-a-mole with militants who emerge for quick attacks before disappearing. When Israel strikes back, it usually leaves a pile of dead civilians behind. Hamas can likely keep this dynamic going for a decade or two—and in doing so, stake its claim to Palestinian leadership by waving the bloodied shirt of martyrdom and preaching the virtues of armed struggle against occupation.”
Hamas “appears confident that it will ultimately assume the Palestinian national leadership. Looking at the same set of facts, the Israeli government apparently believes that it has struck back decisively against the architects of the October 7 attack and reduced Hamas to virtual irrelevancy, beyond being a ragtag nuisance in Gaza. Now Israel is fighting the war it wanted to fight—against Hezbollah in Lebanon—with dramatic early success.”
“… Some in Israel have begun talking about subduing not just Hamas but the whole Axis of Resistance, including Iran itself. Even if Israel doesn’t strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, it may seek to compel the United States to attack those installations in Israel’s defense, or to finish a job that Israel will have started. Netanyahu has long argued that an American military strike is necessary to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If he can’t bring that about today, additional opportunities will surely arise to steer the U.S. into an armed confrontation with Iran, no matter who is in the White House when the time comes.
“… After October 7, Israel unleashed its military in search of greater security, and many Israelis appear to feel that the project could hardly be going better. But Israel now finds itself fighting one insurgency to its south, in Gaza, and marching briskly toward another such quagmire to its north, if it occupies Lebanon. Its hostility toward the Palestinian Authority and violent clashes with armed youth in Palestinian cities suggest a third insurgency developing to its east. If that’s a formula for security, it’s hard to imagine what insecurity would look like.
“One year on from October 7, Hamas and Israel both think events are moving in their direction. Any appreciation of the old adage about being careful what you wish for was, perhaps, one of the most significant victims of October 7.”
Hamas believes it will win because it’s infected with maniacal, deeply deluded beliefs that Israel can be defeated by terror.
Israel believes it will win because it mows down the terrorists and buys itself some years of relative peace and calm. Rinse, repeat. I doubt there’s any other *realistic* scenario.
rdiol12 on
K neither side will surrender war is battle of the will at the end
Idf alrdy said Hamas will be in gaza even in the next 5 years
Electronic_Main_2254 on
>Hamas is far from being destroyed
That’s literally not the case, since October 7th hamas got systematically beat down and they now left with only dozens of rockets and lame capabilities.
Thousands of their members were eliminated and they can’t do anything since Israel captured the Philadelphy Corridor, northern Gaza and Netzarim Corridor.
I can’t understand how someone with more than 2 braincells can say that Hamas is winning this thing.
revaddict94 on
A wildly inaccurate article promoting a sense of false equivalency between Israel and Hamas. There’s one thing that unites Hamas, Hezbollah,Houthis and the clerics in Iran bankrolling this war, and that is radical Islam. These groups believe that they are fighting a holy war against occupation and invaders, and believe that it’s their mission to kill as many occupiers as possible before their martyrdom and subsequent sweet rewards in heaven.Israel’s mistake was to try to coexist with these people and try to manage the problem and enabling this ideology to fester for as long as it has, and to enable these actors to do the damage that they have done.
if there’s an equalency to be drawn here, it’s with the religious extremists in Israel, who attack innocent Palestinians which in turn provides the justification on the other side to recruit more people for terrorism.
Unfortunately, this has escalated into a problem that necessitates a military response along Israel’s borders. In the broader context, Israel and the United States must collaborate to effect a regime change in Iran by empowering the oppressed progressive people within the country to draw them out from the grips of religious extremism.
5 Comments
Hussein Ibish: “One year after Hamas’s attack on southern Israel, both sides believe they are winning. The war in Gaza appears poised to continue indefinitely and probably expand, to the apparent delight of both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Each must be surveying the wreckage in the region and anticipating the dark days ahead with determination and confidence. Each must think he is playing a sophisticated long game that the other will lose.
But “Hamas is far from being destroyed; its fighters are popping up in areas across the Gaza Strip that months ago the Israeli military had declared pacified and abandoned. Israel is now playing whack-a-mole with militants who emerge for quick attacks before disappearing. When Israel strikes back, it usually leaves a pile of dead civilians behind. Hamas can likely keep this dynamic going for a decade or two—and in doing so, stake its claim to Palestinian leadership by waving the bloodied shirt of martyrdom and preaching the virtues of armed struggle against occupation.”
Hamas “appears confident that it will ultimately assume the Palestinian national leadership. Looking at the same set of facts, the Israeli government apparently believes that it has struck back decisively against the architects of the October 7 attack and reduced Hamas to virtual irrelevancy, beyond being a ragtag nuisance in Gaza. Now Israel is fighting the war it wanted to fight—against Hezbollah in Lebanon—with dramatic early success.”
“… Some in Israel have begun talking about subduing not just Hamas but the whole Axis of Resistance, including Iran itself. Even if Israel doesn’t strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, it may seek to compel the United States to attack those installations in Israel’s defense, or to finish a job that Israel will have started. Netanyahu has long argued that an American military strike is necessary to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions. If he can’t bring that about today, additional opportunities will surely arise to steer the U.S. into an armed confrontation with Iran, no matter who is in the White House when the time comes.
“… After October 7, Israel unleashed its military in search of greater security, and many Israelis appear to feel that the project could hardly be going better. But Israel now finds itself fighting one insurgency to its south, in Gaza, and marching briskly toward another such quagmire to its north, if it occupies Lebanon. Its hostility toward the Palestinian Authority and violent clashes with armed youth in Palestinian cities suggest a third insurgency developing to its east. If that’s a formula for security, it’s hard to imagine what insecurity would look like.
“One year on from October 7, Hamas and Israel both think events are moving in their direction. Any appreciation of the old adage about being careful what you wish for was, perhaps, one of the most significant victims of October 7.”
Read more here: [https://theatln.tc/L9ysi5Ir](https://theatln.tc/L9ysi5Ir)
Quite biased article, there.
Hamas believes it will win because it’s infected with maniacal, deeply deluded beliefs that Israel can be defeated by terror.
Israel believes it will win because it mows down the terrorists and buys itself some years of relative peace and calm. Rinse, repeat. I doubt there’s any other *realistic* scenario.
K neither side will surrender war is battle of the will at the end
Idf alrdy said Hamas will be in gaza even in the next 5 years
>Hamas is far from being destroyed
That’s literally not the case, since October 7th hamas got systematically beat down and they now left with only dozens of rockets and lame capabilities.
Thousands of their members were eliminated and they can’t do anything since Israel captured the Philadelphy Corridor, northern Gaza and Netzarim Corridor.
I can’t understand how someone with more than 2 braincells can say that Hamas is winning this thing.
A wildly inaccurate article promoting a sense of false equivalency between Israel and Hamas. There’s one thing that unites Hamas, Hezbollah,Houthis and the clerics in Iran bankrolling this war, and that is radical Islam. These groups believe that they are fighting a holy war against occupation and invaders, and believe that it’s their mission to kill as many occupiers as possible before their martyrdom and subsequent sweet rewards in heaven.Israel’s mistake was to try to coexist with these people and try to manage the problem and enabling this ideology to fester for as long as it has, and to enable these actors to do the damage that they have done.
if there’s an equalency to be drawn here, it’s with the religious extremists in Israel, who attack innocent Palestinians which in turn provides the justification on the other side to recruit more people for terrorism.
Unfortunately, this has escalated into a problem that necessitates a military response along Israel’s borders. In the broader context, Israel and the United States must collaborate to effect a regime change in Iran by empowering the oppressed progressive people within the country to draw them out from the grips of religious extremism.