Opinion: A Pierre Poilievre government would mean a climate catastrophe

I don’t think Canada moves the needle a ton on global emissions regardless of who is in power.  A 10% country wide reduction versus a 10% increase doesn’t change much globally. 

Climate change is real. It’s caused by humans. I decided to look into the impact of the tax in some detail when I was shocked by Jagmeet Singh’s appearance of backing away from the carbon tax.

Now the numbers. In 2022, global CO2 emissions were [37,150 megatonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/276629/global-co2-emissions/). Canada’s part was [708 megatonnes](https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html).

According to the current predictions, by 2030, the Carbon Tax will contribute to a reduction of between [“19 to 22 Mt” of CO2](https://www.naviusresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/440-ERP-followup-V3-no-embargo.pdf).

So if we “Axe the Tax” then in 2030 we are looking at emissions being about 20 megatonnes higher than they would have been without the tax in place. As a share of global human emissions today that represents 0.054%.

That 0.054% is not is what is standing between us and a climate catastrophe. It’s not even a rounding error. The market nudges provided by a consumer carbon tax to reduce demand are simply not enough: we need regulatory changes to how our electricity is generated, how our homes are heated, and how our vehicles are powered.

We will have a climate catastrophe either way, but Canada will be better positioned for the demands of the growing green economy in the coming decades if he isn’t elected.

Anyone saying “Canada isn’t a big emitter so it’s ok to vote PP”, that’s a bad take.

First last country in the world outside the big 5-10 could say the same, and then we’re screwed. Canada needs to do its share.

Also, voting in PP doesn’t just stop any potential reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. It means gutted laws allowing polluters to wreck our environment as much as they’d like. PP will of course call it “cutting red tape”, but it will have a devastating effect on our country’s environment and specifically water.

Add in the hatred and white supremacy PP surrounds himself with, and it’s a pretty awful future you’re asking for if you vote in PP. The continuous use of the notwidthstanding clause by Conservative Premieres should also have you worried about voting Conservative.

We are in for a climate catastrophe no matter who is in charge of Canadian politics
They are not engineers by any means and don’t listen to anyone but their egos

A few problems with this article – first, it falls into the typical line of thinking about the climate that the only way we could ever reduce pollutions or internalize the externality of pollution is to implement a carbon tax, which is incorrect. There’s lots Canada could be doing outside of market tools such as taxes to reduce pollution, such as mandate hard caps on industrial pollution, regulate and monitor big polluters closely, create funding for cities to build alternative transportation networks that are less power-hungry than car-centric infrastructure, and make it easier and more affordable to construct solar and wind power in urban environments.

Secondly, the article fails to point out that the carbon tax isn’t working – Canada has some of the highest pollution per capita in the G20 and it’s only getting worse. We rank very poorly in terms of energy consumption per capita too, which suggests that climate policy that aims to reduce energy consumption – for instance, through public transit investments, more energy efficient housing and appliances – would be the way to go.

Third, the tax creates a direct cost to consumers for goods they don’t have a choice in buying most of the time (for instance, gasoline in transit-defunded cities), and the incidence of the tax is more frequent than the rebate (if the household receives a rebate), hence appears to be much more of a burden on households than it is in reality. This has been why it’s been such a successful sticking point for the conservatives, and why the Liberals insistence that it saves households money has fallen on deaf ears.

You can be pro-climate policy and anti-carbon tax, especially when the way the tax was implemented by this government was so sloppy.