I can’t wait for this afternoon’s Newsweek headline of “Donald Trump dominating in swing states”, followed by this evenings headline “Harris and Trump tied in swing states”.
DeusExHyena on
This is just a list of most states?
localistand on
Nate has that hustle. Keeps his name in the news. His best performing model.
Cimmerian_Barbarian on
Good. Out with the old, in with the new.
inmatarian on
Shifted, or the post convention bump was real and he can’t weight it down to zero forever?
QanonQuinoa on
So if this is accurate we will be completely reliant on PA again. It’s going to be a long election week I’m afraid.
Supermunch2000 on
Vote.
Make your voices heard.
Remember that in the poll booth, nobody is there to look over your shoulder – vote for who **you** want to vote for and nobody else will know.
h0sti1e17 on
This is misleading. Of the 12 states all but two and one district were/are still solidly blue or red anyway. It doesn’t matter that she gained in Montana or Washington and that Trump gained in Maryland and California.
BangerSlapper1 on
Shit article. With a shit headline.
The states ‘shifting to’ Harris are just those where she’s improved in the polls, even if she’s still ahead or behind by safe margins. E.g., Virginia, where she’s ahead of Trump by 7.3 pts, per the article.
Hell, the article also states that California has shifted toward Trump. Yes, going from -31 to -30 is technically a shift. Surprised DC isn’t listed as shifting to Trump, since I believe he’s gone from 4.89% of the vote to 4.8908%.
F this article. And F Newsweek in general.
Rockin_freakapotamus on
Nate Silver owes us all an apology for assuring so many people that Hillary Clinton was a sure win in 2016. Fuck the polls, vote.
DirtDevil1337 on
lmao that comment about California… okay.
Big_Discipline_9666 on
Lol in a tight race, a headline like this can only be from newsweek
OddNothic on
> They include Michigan, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas and New Hampshire, as well as Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Nebraska’s 2nd district, Washington and Missouri.
Trended towards Harris? In Ohio? She’s down by 8-9 points there. She can trend all she wants, but it means nothing. 6 points down in Texas with a month to go? Harris is not happening there, and is not relevant.
It’s all more Newsweek clickbait.
Votes matter, polls less so, Newsweek not at all.
No_nukes_at_all on
so that’s why Trump hasn’t mentioned Nate in weeks..
> Neither is considered a swing state, but polls in both have shown a more closely contested race than recent years, with Harris leading Trump by 7.3 points in Virginia and Trump leading Harris by 3.6 points in Florida.
> 538's poll tracker shows Trump is leading Harris by one point in Arizona and Georgia, and 0.6 points in North Carolina, while Harris leads by between one and two points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Forget polls and models, just vote. Polls and models are nothing put predictions with a small percentage of the electorate surveyed.
robert_d on
Vote. Register to vote. Confirm registration.
KulaanDoDinok on
Here’s why that’s bad for Joe Biden
RedditAdminsWivesBF on
We all know how wrong polls can be so we must vote. It is our last line of defense against tyranny. I, for one, don’t want to live in a theocratic state. Gilead cannot be our future.
BusinessCat88 on
That’s cause his model clearly is fucked. Polls changed by 1-2 points but Silver’s accounting for “convention bump” meant the chances swung 20 points. In this case his finger on the scale is overriding anything from polls. You could have nothing but 50:50 polls and Silver’s model would oscillate based on his accounting for various factors which no longer play any sort of role.
7figureipo on
Political polling is an example of an attempt to hide behind mathematical rigor (of statistics, in this case) when the entire field is pretty terrible at actual empirical application of that rigor. Polls are *at best* a snapshot in time of a narrow sample population. The sample sizes simply aren’t big enough at the cross-tab level to give actual meaningful results (in a truly rigorous sense of the word).
It’s best to just assume your candidate of choice (which had better be Harris, if you value our republic) needs volunteers and staff to work very hard, and for everyone to get out and vote.
OutlawLazerRoboGeek on
Well, it’s Newsweek, so let me guess… 12 States but none of those actually matter for the election. Plus 12 others moved towards Trump, and the other 26 stayed about the same.
Nothingburger overall.
How did I do, not even reading the article?
Krakengreyjoy on
Reminder that Nate Silver’s models are not reliable.
Just vote.
jmfranklin515 on
I feel like the news is like “Kamala Harris is doing great” one day and literally the very next day it’s “bad news for Kamala Harris, swing states slipping out of her grasp, country imperiled by near certainty of a Trump presidency/dictatorship” only to go back to “Kamala has this election in the bag” again the following day. Feels like they’re just cherry picking polls and trends and trying to overstate their significance to craft a back-and-forth narrative to keep us glued to the news.
KarlHavoc00 on
Mods can we please have a moratorium on these trash Newsweek articles? Desperately hyping any crumb of good news for Harris is pathetic and unhelpful
itopia65 on
Ignore the polls…Just get out there and vote!
icouldusemorecoffee on
Downvote all Newsweek articles. They’re the worst of clickbait ‘journalism’.
hughcifer-106103 on
Silver runs a gambling site for Thiel. He needs to manage the money line and nobody should pay any attention to his dumb ass.
Lo-And_Behold1 on
Remember to register and vote this year no matter what the odds of Harris winning are! We still need to win on Nov 5!
Tell everyone to vote before it’s too late!
DingleTheDongle on
don’t.listen.to.nate.silver.
get out and vote!!!
vance won’t certify any election that is not republican won. this is our chance to keep our country alive, no joke
Cherfan74 on
I don’t believe the figures for CA shifting to Republican. CA is a solid blue state and always will be. Kamala Harris is from here and most Californians are proud of her. She’s worked hard for us as Attorney General and Senator. The majority in CA can’t stand Trump and would never vote for him.
Kennydoe on
only 38 more to go to achieve a rational, sane country.
jamarchasinalombardi on
How will lil Nate explain this to Big Daddy Theil?
notevenapro on
Maryland shifting to trump? Get this BS out of here.
35 Comments
Jeez, get me off this pollercoaster.
I can’t wait for this afternoon’s Newsweek headline of “Donald Trump dominating in swing states”, followed by this evenings headline “Harris and Trump tied in swing states”.
This is just a list of most states?
Nate has that hustle. Keeps his name in the news. His best performing model.
Good. Out with the old, in with the new.
Shifted, or the post convention bump was real and he can’t weight it down to zero forever?
So if this is accurate we will be completely reliant on PA again. It’s going to be a long election week I’m afraid.
Vote.
Make your voices heard.
Remember that in the poll booth, nobody is there to look over your shoulder – vote for who **you** want to vote for and nobody else will know.
This is misleading. Of the 12 states all but two and one district were/are still solidly blue or red anyway. It doesn’t matter that she gained in Montana or Washington and that Trump gained in Maryland and California.
Shit article. With a shit headline.
The states ‘shifting to’ Harris are just those where she’s improved in the polls, even if she’s still ahead or behind by safe margins. E.g., Virginia, where she’s ahead of Trump by 7.3 pts, per the article.
Hell, the article also states that California has shifted toward Trump. Yes, going from -31 to -30 is technically a shift. Surprised DC isn’t listed as shifting to Trump, since I believe he’s gone from 4.89% of the vote to 4.8908%.
F this article. And F Newsweek in general.
Nate Silver owes us all an apology for assuring so many people that Hillary Clinton was a sure win in 2016. Fuck the polls, vote.
lmao that comment about California… okay.
Lol in a tight race, a headline like this can only be from newsweek
> They include Michigan, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas and New Hampshire, as well as Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Nebraska’s 2nd district, Washington and Missouri.
Trended towards Harris? In Ohio? She’s down by 8-9 points there. She can trend all she wants, but it means nothing. 6 points down in Texas with a month to go? Harris is not happening there, and is not relevant.
It’s all more Newsweek clickbait.
Votes matter, polls less so, Newsweek not at all.
so that’s why Trump hasn’t mentioned Nate in weeks..
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-model-states-trending-swing-harris-leads-trump-1962457) reduced by 85%. (I’m a bot)
*****
> Twelve states have trended towards Kamala Harris in the past month, according to pollster Nate Silver's forecast.
> Neither is considered a swing state, but polls in both have shown a more closely contested race than recent years, with Harris leading Trump by 7.3 points in Virginia and Trump leading Harris by 3.6 points in Florida.
> 538's poll tracker shows Trump is leading Harris by one point in Arizona and Georgia, and 0.6 points in North Carolina, while Harris leads by between one and two points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/1fughio/12_states_have_shifted_to_kamala_harris_in_past/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ “Version 2.02, ~694558 tl;drs so far.”) | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr “PM’s and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.”) | *Top* *keywords*: **point**^#1 **state**^#2 **Harris**^#3 **lead**^#4 **Trump**^#5
Forget polls and models, just vote. Polls and models are nothing put predictions with a small percentage of the electorate surveyed.
Vote. Register to vote. Confirm registration.
Here’s why that’s bad for Joe Biden
We all know how wrong polls can be so we must vote. It is our last line of defense against tyranny. I, for one, don’t want to live in a theocratic state. Gilead cannot be our future.
That’s cause his model clearly is fucked. Polls changed by 1-2 points but Silver’s accounting for “convention bump” meant the chances swung 20 points. In this case his finger on the scale is overriding anything from polls. You could have nothing but 50:50 polls and Silver’s model would oscillate based on his accounting for various factors which no longer play any sort of role.
Political polling is an example of an attempt to hide behind mathematical rigor (of statistics, in this case) when the entire field is pretty terrible at actual empirical application of that rigor. Polls are *at best* a snapshot in time of a narrow sample population. The sample sizes simply aren’t big enough at the cross-tab level to give actual meaningful results (in a truly rigorous sense of the word).
It’s best to just assume your candidate of choice (which had better be Harris, if you value our republic) needs volunteers and staff to work very hard, and for everyone to get out and vote.
Well, it’s Newsweek, so let me guess… 12 States but none of those actually matter for the election. Plus 12 others moved towards Trump, and the other 26 stayed about the same.
Nothingburger overall.
How did I do, not even reading the article?
Reminder that Nate Silver’s models are not reliable.
Just vote.
I feel like the news is like “Kamala Harris is doing great” one day and literally the very next day it’s “bad news for Kamala Harris, swing states slipping out of her grasp, country imperiled by near certainty of a Trump presidency/dictatorship” only to go back to “Kamala has this election in the bag” again the following day. Feels like they’re just cherry picking polls and trends and trying to overstate their significance to craft a back-and-forth narrative to keep us glued to the news.
Mods can we please have a moratorium on these trash Newsweek articles? Desperately hyping any crumb of good news for Harris is pathetic and unhelpful
Ignore the polls…Just get out there and vote!
Downvote all Newsweek articles. They’re the worst of clickbait ‘journalism’.
Silver runs a gambling site for Thiel. He needs to manage the money line and nobody should pay any attention to his dumb ass.
Remember to register and vote this year no matter what the odds of Harris winning are! We still need to win on Nov 5!
Tell everyone to vote before it’s too late!
don’t.listen.to.nate.silver.
get out and vote!!!
vance won’t certify any election that is not republican won. this is our chance to keep our country alive, no joke
I don’t believe the figures for CA shifting to Republican. CA is a solid blue state and always will be. Kamala Harris is from here and most Californians are proud of her. She’s worked hard for us as Attorney General and Senator. The majority in CA can’t stand Trump and would never vote for him.
only 38 more to go to achieve a rational, sane country.
How will lil Nate explain this to Big Daddy Theil?
Maryland shifting to trump? Get this BS out of here.