“Now, as then, my sources suggest that Iran has no appetite for getting into a war and hopes for this to be the end of hostilities. And yet, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decided to take the risk. In the past month, Iran has had to watch while Israel made quick work of destroying Hezbollah’s command structure and killed its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Tehran was fast losing face, and Khamenei apparently made up his mind to shore up his anti-Israel credibility. History will show how consequential this decision was.
“Shortly after the missile barrage, Benjamin Netanyahu publicly announced that Iran had made a ‘big mistake’ and would ‘pay for it.’ Israel’s dedicated X account echoed this threat in Persian. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called on Netanyahu to attack Iran’s nuclear and energy sites, claiming that this could lead Iranians to rise up and bring down their regime at last. Israel has had no better chance in half a century to change the region fundamentally, Bennett said.
“This is a terrifying moment for Iran. Khamenei has long pursued what he calls a ‘no peace, no war’ strategy: Iran supports regional militias opposed to Western interests and the Jewish state but avoids actually getting into a war. The approach was always untenable. But Iran is not ready for an all-out war: Its economically battered society does not share its leaders’ animus toward Israel, and its military capabilities don’t even begin to match Israel’s sophisticated arsenal. Iran lacks significant air-defense capabilities on its own, and Russia has not leapt to complement them.
Iran’s attack on Israel looked more like a desperate attempt to save Iran’s face and honor after the humiliations they received during the last two weeks. Now Israel finally has the justification they needed to strike Iran’s oil and gas industry, maybe even their nuclear sites.
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Arash Azizi: “Iran’s attack on Israel yesterday evoked a sense of déjà vu. On April 13, too, Iran targeted Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones—at that time marking a first-ever in the history of the two countries. The latest strikes were notably similar: more show than effect, resulting in few casualties (April’s injured only a young Arab Israeli girl, and today’s killed a Palestinian worker in Jericho, in the West Bank). No Israeli civilians were hurt in either attack, although it’s likely that Iran’s use of more sophisticated missiles brought about greater damage this time. [https://theatln.tc/7AUzVCy3](https://theatln.tc/7AUzVCy3)Â
“Now, as then, my sources suggest that Iran has no appetite for getting into a war and hopes for this to be the end of hostilities. And yet, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decided to take the risk. In the past month, Iran has had to watch while Israel made quick work of destroying Hezbollah’s command structure and killed its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Tehran was fast losing face, and Khamenei apparently made up his mind to shore up his anti-Israel credibility. History will show how consequential this decision was.
“Shortly after the missile barrage, Benjamin Netanyahu publicly announced that Iran had made a ‘big mistake’ and would ‘pay for it.’ Israel’s dedicated X account echoed this threat in Persian. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called on Netanyahu to attack Iran’s nuclear and energy sites, claiming that this could lead Iranians to rise up and bring down their regime at last. Israel has had no better chance in half a century to change the region fundamentally, Bennett said.
“This is a terrifying moment for Iran. Khamenei has long pursued what he calls a ‘no peace, no war’ strategy: Iran supports regional militias opposed to Western interests and the Jewish state but avoids actually getting into a war. The approach was always untenable. But Iran is not ready for an all-out war: Its economically battered society does not share its leaders’ animus toward Israel, and its military capabilities don’t even begin to match Israel’s sophisticated arsenal. Iran lacks significant air-defense capabilities on its own, and Russia has not leapt to complement them.
Read more: [https://theatln.tc/7AUzVCy3](https://theatln.tc/7AUzVCy3)
Iran’s attack on Israel looked more like a desperate attempt to save Iran’s face and honor after the humiliations they received during the last two weeks. Now Israel finally has the justification they needed to strike Iran’s oil and gas industry, maybe even their nuclear sites.