Research: This is how the unblocking of Armenia-Turkey border will affect the price of goods in Armenia \\ Pashinyan presents Crossroads of Peace to Erdogan \\ Petition to fire Justice Minister \\ Economy \\ and…

7 minutes of Armenia coverage in Transcaucasian Telegraph’s Sep/25/2024 edition.

Pashinyan and Erdogan met in New York, exchanged gifts

The two discussed the implementation of the steps taken earlier towards the normalization of AM-TR relations. They also spoke about the AM-AZ peace efforts.

Erdogan said there has been significant progress in AM-TR relations without preconditions.

Pashinyan gifted Erdogan a brochure of his Crossroads of Peace regional communication unblocking project. Erdogan gave Pashinyan a book authored by him.

… from an interview with the editor of Istambul-based Jamanak newspaper Ara Gochunyan

REPORTER: What can you tell us about the Pashinyan-Erdogan meeting by judging from the official statements?

GOCHUNYAN: In line with the normalization efforts, the two capitals released almost identical statements, but this time adding that they are willing to give a new impetus to the efforts. If everything goes according to plan in the near future, a significant amount of trust has accumulated between the parties for the two leaders to increase the normalization activity by one level, or two move to the implementation phase.

This is also the first time that after an Erdogan-Pashinyan meeting, the Armenian side released a statement that mentions the Crossroads of Peace. This is extremely important because in the past we were accustomed to seeing Azerbaijan pushing for the Zangezur Corridor and Turkey always siding with Azerbaijan’s narrative.

In the past, Turkey’s rhetoric on the Zangezur Corridor did not differ from Azerbaijan’s. Now Pashinyan is "familiarizing" Erdogan with the Crossroads of Peace. Today Armenia feels less stressed while dealing with Turkey, and feels less threatened by Turkey regarding Armenia’s sovereignty over any communication routes passing through Armenia. Pashinyan is displaying more courage, and this is a sign that Armenia has more room to breathe.

REPORTER: So, do you disagree that Turkey wants Azerbaijan to have a Russian-controlled corridor through Armenia?

GOCHUNYAN: Russia is doing everything possible to "return" to the region by controlling a corridor, but Turkey has its own interests. Why would Turkey want Russia to control it? Large countries like Turkey prefer to deal with smaller partners, so why would Turkey want this vitally important link with Central Asia to be negotiated with Russia if they can reach an agreement only with Armenia, a "smaller" country? The available information suggests that Turkey is okay with or without Russia’s presence.

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how will the unblocking of Armenia’s border with Turkey affect the price of goods in Armenia?

Researchers at ACSES studied the markets in Armenia (Yerevan) and Turkey (Kars) to understand whether Turkish goods would "flood" the Armenian market under equal playing conditions.

… Turkish products are already sold in Armenia

In the structure of Armenia’s commodity imports, Turkey played a relatively significant role in 2008-2011 by exceeding 6% in 2008. By 2023 it was only 2% with $337M, although that was the highest dollar amount.

… annual imports of Turkish products and its share

1995: $3M

2005: $67M (3.7%)

2010: $210M (5.6%)

2015: $137M (4.2%)

2020: $231M (5.1%)

2021: $73M (1.4%)

2022: $263M (3.0%)

2023: $337M (2.6%)

2024: $154M (1.5%) (first half)

… what Turkish products is Armenia importing today?

16% of imports are clothing items

14% water boilers [Baxi?]

5% plastic items

4% aluminum items

4% vehicles

4% fuel, oil

4% recording devices, electronics

4% wood items

4% fruits and nuts

3% soap, candle, plastilin

3% furniture, bedding

35% other items

… Trade Compatibility Index (TCI) shows the extent to which Armenia and Turkey can satisfy each other’s import/export needs

For agricultural goods, Armenia’s index for satisfying Turkey’s needs is 12.0. Turkey’s index for satisfying Armenia’s needs is 39.7.

For all products, Armenia’s index is 23.5, Turkey’s is 39.5.

RESEARCHERS: Although the findings show that Armenia has very little agricultural potential to satisfy the Turkish market needs, Turkey’s ability to satisfy Armenia’s needs is also not big; Turkey’s 39.7 score is significantly below 50.

In other words, there is some compatibility in the agricultural goods that Turkey can export that Armenia needs, but this compatibility is not strong. We observe a similar picture for all products, not just agricultural.

… prices of 50 agricultural products were examined in Turkey and Armenia to calculate and compare the price of Turkish products if they are imported and sold in Armenia

Product: Current price in Armenia (price difference for the consumer if you import it from Turkey and pay customs duties)

Onion ֏295 (+6%) [meaning the onion costs ֏295 in Armenia, while the same onion imported from Turkey would cost 6% more, meaning the Armenian product would be more competitive]

Tomato ֏795 (-38%) [meaning Armenian consumers would pay 38% less for tomato]

Cucumber ֏465 (-9%)

Potato ֏215 (+67%)

Carrot ֏285 (+207%)

Cabbage ֏235 (-18%)

Cauliflower ֏1225 (-50%)

Eggplant ֏945 (-59%)

Garlic ֏1890 (+32%)

Green pepper ֏2150 (-75%)

Lettuce ֏200 (+104%)

Apple ֏585 (-9%)

Pear ֏1450 (-38%)

Strawberry ֏2390 (-44%)

Mandarin ֏795 (-80%)

Orange ֏695 (-57%)

Beef ֏3490 (+148%)

Goat meat ֏4600 (+90%)

Chicken meat ֏1590 (+37%)

Fish frozen ֏1690 (+92%)

Milk ֏470 (+39%)

Sour cream ֏1560 (-26%)

Cheese ֏2400 (+53%)

Butter ֏4650 (+33%)

Sausage ֏3690 (+2%)

Kielbasa ֏3850 (+143%)

Eggs, 30 pieces ֏2100 (-36%)

Flour ֏218 (-3%)

Veggie oil ֏960 (-17%)

… TLDR

21 of 50 agricultural goods imported from Turkey will be less competitive than their local counterparts, in part because of high customs duties imposed by EAEU.

For 29 of 50 agricultural goods, Armenian consumers would pay less for Turkish products, sometimes 2-5 times less.

… the research highlights multiple ways Armenia can protect its internal market if necessary without self-isolation

It lists examples used by the US, Japan, EU, South Korea, etc.

… researchers conclude

• Turkey would have a limited ability to "invade" the Armenian market.

• 29 of 50 Turkish agricultural goods, if no restrictions are imposed, would cause significant issues for Armenian producers in the medium term, while benefitting Armenian consumers with their low prices.

• Armenia has enough international and internal tools to protect its market. Examples: Seasonal customs duties under EAEU; direct tariffs on Turkish goods without waiting for the approval of others, presumably EAEU; Armenia’s internal legislation allows the consumer protection agency to target monopolies or companies that have a monopoly-like influence on the market.

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Armenia’s economic activity index in January-August of 2024:

+9%

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the government does not plan to nationalize the power grid operator ՀԷՑ despite complaints of mismanagement by the company: a ranking member of the ruling party

Context about complaints in September 20 report.

The MP also said there are no plans to raise the price of electricity and that in recent years they adopted a number of changes to allow ՀԷՑ to invest in the power grid without affecting the price of electricity for consumers.

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Joe Biden disinvited Georgian leader from a reception for world leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly

The US Embassy in Georgia said PM Kobakhidze’s invitation to the reception was revoked due to his government’s anti-democratic actions, misinformation, and negative rhetoric about the US and the West.

Kobakhidze was initially invited to the Wednesday reception but was later removed from the guest list.

The White House also refused all meetings with the Georgian delegation, and NatSec Jake Sullivan also refused to meet with PM Kobakhidze.

Georgian parliament speaker advised the United States to "learn hospitality from the Georgian people."

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Armenia’s ruling party MPs launch a petition to urge PM Pashinyan to fire Justice Minister Minasyan [December 2022-current]

QP MP AGHAZARYAN: This is an unofficial petition by MPs, not an official party thing. I don’t know how many MPs have signed so far. We are asking the Prime Minister to examine the expediency of Grigoryan’s role as the minister. There are complaints about his performance. //

Grigor Minasyan’s brother Mishik (wanted, on the run) and father Ara (wanted, on the run) are some of the most famous figures linked with the former regimes and are facing multiple criminal charges, but that didn’t deter PM Pashinyan from appointing Grigor as the minister.

A ruling MP said there are unrelated reasons why they want Minasyan gone, and that Minasyan’s links with ex-regime figures "is not on the list of top five issues." One MP believes the Justice Minister must be from Pashinyan’s team and share the party’s core values; Minasyan is an "outsider". Another MP said they see problems with Minasyan’s personnel choices (a recent appointee is allegedly linked with ex-President Kocharyan).

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video compilation of Azeri MPs falling asleep during Ilham Aliyev’s speech to parliament

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hundreds of provincial schools took part in Prime Minister’s Bicycle Cup tournament

The September 25 event was organized for students of 69 schools in Aragatsotn province, who were excited about not having to sit behind boring desks that day.

The winner was the school in the village of Melikgyugh. The top three teams advance to the national tournament which will be held this weekend.

in this academic year, all secondary schools received bicycles from the Ministry of Education and Culture, which were used in the tournament today.

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Armenia’s Emma Poghosyan (81 kg) wins gold in World Youth Weightlifting Championship

She earlier won the European title.

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adrenaline junkies are gathering in Yeghvard for Air Fest: VIDEO

You can die in an air accident for as little as ֏38,000.

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The car that serves opposition MP Hayk Mamijanyan was impounded on Wednesday by Patrol Police after its drunk driver was caught driving in the opposite lane. The MP was not in the car at the time of the incident.

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announcement

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