Hussein Ibish: “Neither Iran nor Hezbollah has much to gain from a regional conflagration or a war with Israel in Lebanon, particularly one started on behalf of Hamas. For Iran, Hezbollah is a precious asset not to be wasted. Tehran sees the militia—and its estimated 150,000 missiles and rockets, many with precision guidance—as its prime deterrent against an Israeli or American attack on its homeland or nuclear facilities, as well as a regional trump card. To expend this capacity on Gaza would be irrational from an Iranian point of view. Gaza has no strategic, religious, or historic significance to Iran …”
“So if Hezbollah doesn’t want a war, why doesn’t it accept a sensible settlement, like the one the Biden administration has spent the past year negotiating? Israel had been demanding that Hezbollah withdraw its forces and heavy equipment to about 25 kilometers, or 15 miles, away from the border; Hezbollah refused to consider this and instead insisted on an end to the Gaza war. The U.S. envoy, Amos Hochstein, reportedly proposed a compromise, with Hezbollah pulling back to seven or eight kilometers from the border rather than 25 … The proposal is eminently reasonable, but Hezbollah will never accept it.”
“To understand why, consider that the agreement that ended the Lebanese Civil War in 1989 required all warring parties to disarm. Hezbollah managed to carve out an exception, first because Israel was still occupying southern Lebanon, and later, when that was no longer the case, on the grounds that the militia would protect the border area and liberate two small towns that remained under Israeli control. This is the rather flimsy basis on which the militia group has been permitted to maintain its own army—and therefore its own foreign and defense policy, and the ability to plunge Lebanon into war at any moment, without consulting the rest of its citizens or its government.
“Any formal understanding that pulls Hezbollah back from the border threatens the rationale for its existence as an armed group within Lebanon. How can Hezbollah protect a border or liberate villages from five or so miles away? Sooner or later, someone in Lebanon would be liable to point out that if the Lebanese military or UN forces are securing the border area, Hezbollah needs to finally follow the other militia groups and disarm.”
I think the bigger issue that prevents a deal betweem the 2 is that hezbollah refuses to acknowledge any form of israel existing.
Bamfor07 on
I think we’re kidding ourselves if we think either side wants a deal.
redditthrowaway0315 on
I don’t think they want one anyway. It’s going to be bloody and long.
TheCommodore44 on
Because Hezbollah all of a sudden doesn’t have any comms and Israel can’t get hold of them?
GorgieRules1874 on
Because hezbollah are terrorists
winterchainz on
Because dictatorships always need an enemy.
devadander23 on
Why *Iran and Israel can’t make a deal you mean?
di11deux on
> I don’t, I don’t want to kill you! What would I do without you? Go back to ripping off mob dealers? No, no, no! No. You… you… complete me.
I feel like that line from the Joker in The Dark Knight pretty well encapsulates Hezbollah’s viewpoint towards Israel. Without Israel as an enemy, what purpose does Hezbollah serve? It would just be yet-another political/military faction with no clear aims or objectives.
One-Progress999 on
Hezbollah isn’t the Lebanese government. It’d be like the US making a deal with the Mexican Cartel. Why give them any more legitimacy.
jrgkgb on
How do you compromise with someone whose agenda is to kill you?
Tell ya what, give me what I demand and I’ll only kill you a little.
SunBom on
can I ask the OP why does Israel have to make deal with Lebanon? can the OP elaborate what kind of deal?
13 Comments
Hussein Ibish: “Neither Iran nor Hezbollah has much to gain from a regional conflagration or a war with Israel in Lebanon, particularly one started on behalf of Hamas. For Iran, Hezbollah is a precious asset not to be wasted. Tehran sees the militia—and its estimated 150,000 missiles and rockets, many with precision guidance—as its prime deterrent against an Israeli or American attack on its homeland or nuclear facilities, as well as a regional trump card. To expend this capacity on Gaza would be irrational from an Iranian point of view. Gaza has no strategic, religious, or historic significance to Iran …”
“So if Hezbollah doesn’t want a war, why doesn’t it accept a sensible settlement, like the one the Biden administration has spent the past year negotiating? Israel had been demanding that Hezbollah withdraw its forces and heavy equipment to about 25 kilometers, or 15 miles, away from the border; Hezbollah refused to consider this and instead insisted on an end to the Gaza war. The U.S. envoy, Amos Hochstein, reportedly proposed a compromise, with Hezbollah pulling back to seven or eight kilometers from the border rather than 25 … The proposal is eminently reasonable, but Hezbollah will never accept it.”
“To understand why, consider that the agreement that ended the Lebanese Civil War in 1989 required all warring parties to disarm. Hezbollah managed to carve out an exception, first because Israel was still occupying southern Lebanon, and later, when that was no longer the case, on the grounds that the militia would protect the border area and liberate two small towns that remained under Israeli control. This is the rather flimsy basis on which the militia group has been permitted to maintain its own army—and therefore its own foreign and defense policy, and the ability to plunge Lebanon into war at any moment, without consulting the rest of its citizens or its government.
“Any formal understanding that pulls Hezbollah back from the border threatens the rationale for its existence as an armed group within Lebanon. How can Hezbollah protect a border or liberate villages from five or so miles away? Sooner or later, someone in Lebanon would be liable to point out that if the Lebanese military or UN forces are securing the border area, Hezbollah needs to finally follow the other militia groups and disarm.”
Read more here: [https://theatln.tc/FtFbXVvA](https://theatln.tc/FtFbXVvA)
I think the bigger issue that prevents a deal betweem the 2 is that hezbollah refuses to acknowledge any form of israel existing.
I think we’re kidding ourselves if we think either side wants a deal.
I don’t think they want one anyway. It’s going to be bloody and long.
Because Hezbollah all of a sudden doesn’t have any comms and Israel can’t get hold of them?
Because hezbollah are terrorists
Because dictatorships always need an enemy.
Why *Iran and Israel can’t make a deal you mean?
> I don’t, I don’t want to kill you! What would I do without you? Go back to ripping off mob dealers? No, no, no! No. You… you… complete me.
I feel like that line from the Joker in The Dark Knight pretty well encapsulates Hezbollah’s viewpoint towards Israel. Without Israel as an enemy, what purpose does Hezbollah serve? It would just be yet-another political/military faction with no clear aims or objectives.
Hezbollah isn’t the Lebanese government. It’d be like the US making a deal with the Mexican Cartel. Why give them any more legitimacy.
How do you compromise with someone whose agenda is to kill you?
Tell ya what, give me what I demand and I’ll only kill you a little.
can I ask the OP why does Israel have to make deal with Lebanon? can the OP elaborate what kind of deal?
[Still relevant](https://thenewstalkers.com/discussion/image/discussion_image/42285/xxxlarge/_v=63f541537137132)