A few weeks ago many of you may remember Israel doing targeted strikes within Beirut killing a senior hezbollah figure and then hours later assassinating the former political head of hamas in Iran..
At the time both of those were considered red lines crossed from Israel to Iran. Iran promised retaliation (which still hasn't happened)
A few days ago over 1000 rigged pagers go off injuring thousands and killing dozens, all through out Lebanon.
Two days ago Israel conducted a similar attack on two way radios resulting in a similar amount of casualties.
Yesterday massive strikes all throughout Southern Lebanon (which aren't exactly new or a red line but was a display of force Israel had not been showing)
And today another precise strike in Beirut with the target being a residential building holding a high ranking hezbollah official.
Iran has yet to publicly speak about any of the recent attacks this week. Objectively speaking the largest and most equipped of Iran's proxies and probably one of the largest military forces in the middle east in general is having giant chunks ripped out of it, with red lines crossed left and right by Israel, Iran lacks the retaliatory ability to stop it.
And I don't see any reason why Israel would stop. The US isn't really changing its rhetoric in a way that would encourage Israel to stop. No other western powers are doing anything either.
Which leaves Iran at the poker table where they are all in and have the shittiest cards possible. I don't think we will see Iran fall here or anything don't get me wrong, but you have to really start and wonder what the micro armies throughout the middle east who are loyal to Iran are going to think about the situation and who they can trust, and the power vacuums within that will rapidly collapse.
The deafening silence from Iran could destabilize the entire middle east.
byu/frizzykid ingeopolitics
21 Comments
It’s quite simple actually, Iran and their proxies are literally a bunch of terrorist groups, so even if they have their members support and their rocket arsenals, fighting against Israel is an entirely different story, as they are now learning.
We’re talking about a nuclear regional superpower backed by the western allies while having arguably one of the best intelligence/army/defense/technology in EMEA.
Even if you want to support the Palestinians (and I really don’t think that these groups are doing it from a pure care of the Palestinians), there are better ways to do so, you can’t simply say that you will “destroy Israel” and get away with it.
It’s like some crappy nation from Africa will say that they will destroy the UK just to support someone else, you can declare it and cause some harm but it doesn’t mean you will be able to actually achieve it.
You speak of Israel crossing red lines like its a bad thing
Who do those red lines belong to?
Why should Israel stop?
Actors aligned with the ‘axis of evil’ and hostile to the entire West are being decimated.
If anything, it’s remarkable that this continues as easily as it does
Reports are coming in that the entire command staff of Hezbollahs Radwan force was killed by an IDF air strike along with its senior commander, Ibrahim Aqil this morning. The top 20 or so commanders of their best equipped and trained unit are gone.
Radwan is an infiltration force trained to invade Israel and commit Oct 7 style atrocities against civilians but at a much larger scale.
Hezbollah is being taken apart.
Iran is hiding something, the government is really unpopular and maybe they have bigger issues to deal with internally. Something that isn’t public yet.
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The middle east is stable? Who knew?
The terrorists are attacking the terrorists. The far-right Israeli political party is going to drag the US into a long, drawn-out war that nobody wants. The US will have boots on the ground in Iran within the next two years.
Your assumptions are outright wrong. The US is doing everything in its power to prevent the situation from getting worse in the Middle East.
I could see Iran’s silence as meaning one of two things. One, they want to lie low and stay out of the fight. Two, they’re planning something that will really hurt Isreal and don’t want to attract too much attention beforehand. Either way, as long as Iran is supplying the majority of their weapons, Iran will continue to hold considerable sway. Their influence may fade, but it’s unlikely to be replaced anytime soon. No other power shares their ideology or has the depth of connections.
I think it’s the opposite. A collapse of the Islamic republic would do more to stabilize the Middle East than any other single event.
I also think it’s potentially a lot closer than people think.
The Iranian people have had it with the Ayatollah, and I have to think there are a number of forces doing the math on what it takes to take his regime down, including Israel.
In the last few weeks, the Islamic republic lost their president and his successor in what was either an embarrassing failure of their Air Force or the work of mossad agent Eli Kopter. I had assumed it was truly some combination of pilot error, bad weather, or the fact that their Air Force is comprised of museum pieces that no sane person would fly in, but now I’m wondering if that pilot was carrying a pager.
Then after that, they had a foreign VIP blown up in the middle of their capital.
Then their “massive” attack on Israel failed to do any real damage.
Then, despite warnings from the US to let things be, Israel blew up one of their most advanced air defense systems that was “protecting” their nuclear facilities as a final middle finger to the Ayatollah.
Meanwhile, their strongest military proxy now looks like a bunch of buffoons with an even more embarrassing series of Israeli strikes this past week.
A dream scenario would be the Iranians overthrowing the Ayatollah and his goons with US and Israeli assistance.
The entire rest of the Middle East seems ready to end this years long conflict, and a newly freed Iran pulling support from the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah means those groups run out of ammo real fast.
It’s hard to imagine anything doing more to stabilize the Middle East than an overthrow of the Islamic republic in Iran.
Iran is in geopolitical check.
I wouldn’t reckon they’re all-in, but damn close to it. Hence why one of the only moves they have is to stfu and speak through proxies. Years of work propping up Hez, Houthis and Hamas is going down the drain and setting them back decades. Their soft/hard power projection has kinda’ become a joke. I doubt they’ll be an earnest ‘regional power’ after this. Which I’d say is part of the objective at this point.
The best they can do is bide time for their nuclear program. That’s the indication they’re going all-in when they jeopardize that. Which becomes the checkmate.
So instead, they’ll lick wounds and posture between China & Russia.
>but you have to really start and wonder what the micro armies throughout the middle east who are loyal to Iran are going to think about the situation and who they can trust, and the power vacuums within that will rapidly collapse.
Not a bad thing if you look at it like you’re eradicating a pest infestation.
All the while Saudi Arabia is looking at Israel like they just did them a giant favor. And that’s a foot into normalization of relations.
There’s more weeds to get into but that seems like the gist.
I don’t usually underestimate any countries the size and potential of Iran, but the last 7 decades have shown that even great global powers can get stuck in the dirt when operating in foreign soil. US in Vietnam, USSR in Afghanistan, I dare also say US in freakin Iraq and even Russia in Ukraine. Offensive operations are hazardous. All it takes is a little push from your geopolitical rival and you’re stuck in the swamp. So if the US and Russia/USSR got stuck in the mud, I can’t imagine how messy things could get for Iran, should they decide to go on the retaliatory offensive
A hypothetical invasion of Iran doesn’t result in Afghanistan 2.0. The NATO installed government had basically zero chance of working independently without the life support that was NATO, in a land where any governing body had limited power outside of places like Kabul or Kandahar. They were always going to do their own thing or have something extreme like the taliban. Post-invasion Iran wouldn’t have that problem.
Why would Israel stop? Wouldn’t any country in the world attack a terrorist group that was shooting rockets at their territory daily?
Why does everyone have a big hard-on for Iran. They are kinda just doing their thing but getting blamed for every possible thing. Meanwhile Israel and Saudi Arabia are creating actual destruction, Syria is in the pit of hell. Do we need oil that badly that were making Iran the new target?
So basically, Iran is probably too scared to reveal its insecurities, and they REALLY don’t wanna get into a war with Israel, and I remember reading somewhere that Hezbollah very specifically told them NOT to get involved with them in Lebanon if Israel decides to go to war with them.
But yeah, it seems to me that Iran is likely much more weaker and vulnerable at this point in time than they make themselves out to be, and their government is not at all popular. The Iranian people lived with this government that they don’t support anymore or even want after 45 years of this kind of rule, they want change.
There’s also the fact that there is no Supreme Leader successor, and the dude that is currently supreme leader is in his mid to late 80’s now, their most likely successor has died in a helicopter crash, and with no successor, there is a vacuum.
But yeah, I think we could see the unpredictable collapse of the regime in Iran, and it will probably be sudden and catch us all off guard.
Many of Hezbollah and Iran’s capabilities have been significantly reduced in the past few days, and now both Iran and Hezbollah are paralyzed and at a loss for what to do, as now many of their assets have been weakened and they cannot make any secret plans to attack anyone anymore.
It’s a temporary situation where Russia can’t really do much and Biden is already out of the game and not in a position or willing to intervene. That’s what Israel is thinking, this is the time when they can work preemptively to position themselves in an advantageous position before Ukraine is solved and Harris is sworn in.
Like anybody else I’m surprised at the coordinated attacks and sophistication but it’s a signal after a few fuckups. We’re still the top dog here and Iran is not so much of a threat to us. Personally I only condemn them for the indiscriminate killing in Gaza. Just my 2c
Well, you use proxies when you don’t want to risk the bulk of your military, and you expect that asymmetric warfare will weaken your opponent’s military and economy.
Iran also has internal problems. In the past few years the young folks in Iran have been challenging the church, and in the last week some young women are removing their… I’m sorry, I don’t remember the proper name, but their religious veils. Iran may be nervous about escalating at a time of internal tension.
They would say something but they are afraid to get near the phones, microphones, and computers
The problem with ruthless dictatorships is that they breed quiet, careful enemies who are hard to detect.
That actually makes many dictatorships easier for foreign intelligence services to penetrate at high levels.
It’s clear Iran’s security regime is full of holes, and their entire strategy of winning via proxy wars may collapse because of it.
I’m just glad Iran is getting the treatment it deserves. After bringing terror and death to so many countries inside and outside the Middle East.