Could there be a Kamala Harris landslide in November? The data scientist who correctly called the last election is betting yes

https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/?itm_source=parsely-api

38 Comments

  1. Does not matter, vote vote vote vote vote vote. Do not become complacent or become over confident. We don’t need 2016 again.

  2. armchairmegalomaniac on

    We all need to vote, but there’s a lot more we can do besides vote. With 7 weeks before election day, we can donate, volunteer, register other people and ourselves, talk to neighbors, talk to strangers, comment on social media, join groups writing post cards to other voters in your state, go to rallies, read good news sources so we can help spread good information and cancel out misinformation… Each of us can do what we are capable of and keep at it until the finish line and beyond… this election might not be decided on election day.

  3. OppositeDifference on

    Archive link – https://archive.ph/LVOde

    You can read this to feel good for a minute, but don’t for a second let it make you complacent. The fact is that nobody knows jack diddly shit until votes are counted, and you always do best when you play like you’re 5 points behind.

  4. Projected win? Make it a landslide. Projected landslide? Make it a blowout. Projected blowout? Make it complete political annihilation. VOTE.

  5. Uses how bets are placed for the perceived winner as how the popular vote will shakeout in election.

    Gets way more data points, more often as people are betting 24/7 whole polls are usually 4-5 days late with maybe a couple thousand respondents.

    Basically crowd sourcing who people think will win, and the crowd is usually good at that sort of thing.

    His model outperformed in 2020 for presidential election, and the 2 runoff senate races. Currently has Harris 55% betting favorite/projected pop vote win and winning basically all swing states for a 400 EC blowout.

    Hope so.

  6. Chemical_Turnover_29 on

    A landslide victory is the only way to put MAGA to bed once and for all. Anything close, and they claim it was stolen.

  7. I typically like positive news, but a lot of left-wing people get pretty cynical about voting (and sometimes, rightly so). So I’d like to say: There is no landslide if no one votes. Go fookin’ vote no matter what.

    Unless you want a turbo charged boost to idiocracy with a rambling narcissist with an IQ of 40 running the country.

  8. Anything can happen in the next two months. Hillary had it in the bag and then the FBI decided to kneecap her by publicly announcing an investigation (that found no crimes) 10 days before the election. Obama’s DOJ.

    There are Trump supporters in these federal law enforcement agencies who may be angling for a similar attack.

    Kamala is being so careful about what press she talks to and what she says because one bad soundbite could set her back in this political environment where people get their information from 10 second tik tok videos.

    Many opportunities for failure.

  9. 400+ EVs? I don’t buy it. If Harris gets all 7 swing states and doesn’t lose any states from 2020, that’s 319 EVs. Throw in FL, TX, AK, and IA and she still is under 400 (398).

  10. No_nukes_at_all on

    I dont dare to hope, but i also suspect it will happen. The contrast. Between adequate and horrible has never been as clear.

  11. The GOP’s dirty tricks aint nothing yet, friends. They’re not going down without a filthy, bloody struggle to the death, and even after the election there will be hijinks like no one’s ever seen. GET OUT AND VOTE. Pressure your friends and family in battleground states. We cant leave a goddamned thing up to chance. A blue wave isnt enough, this needs to be an whole-ass blue massacre.

    If Trump gets back in, the country is fucked. You, your kids, your parents, your town, all of it. AND EVERYONE ELSE TOO! The global impact is going to be surprising. Dont let this happen. HARRIS WALZ 2024!

  12. WiseChemistry2339 on

    The whole world is counting on us to not let naziism slide back onto the world stage. And at this point that is exactly what this MAGA crap has devolved into. We must step up and stamp this out. VOTE! In greater numbers than we’ve ever voted before. Everyone

  13. LA-LA-LA-LA! I can’t hear you!

    Doesn’t matter, act like she’s 10 points behind! Get out there!

  14. Don’t pay attention to predictions and polls. Hope is great, but complacency will lead to a repeat of the 2016 election. Show up and VOTE blue.

    Make sure you are registered and check your voter registration status often. Encourage your friends and family to do the same.

  15. Can someone please put me in a medically induced coma until after the election? I can’t take this stress. If Dump wins, just smother me with a pillow.

  16. The biggest shocker would be her winning Texas. The night would pretty much be over at that point.

  17. I should be, Trump is the worst presidential nominee in the history of America. The guy is fucking nuts.

  18. No one believe this propaganda bullshit. Complacency is a big part of what gave us Trump the first time.

    Check your registration now! Vote early (though not often ;-), vote by mail, vote however, but vote, damn you!!!!

  19. SecretPotatoChip on

    With this and the Christopher Bouzy prediction, I’m pretty confident that Harris will win by a considerable margin. Vote. It’s the only way she wins.

    My biggest concern is Republicans getting the election kicked to the supreme court, who will hand it to Trump.

  20. You guys are all counting your chickens before they’ve hatched!

    As of today, we haven’t seen the October Suprise from…:

    – Putin
    – OPEC
    – Elon Musk
    – The other billionaires
    – The other oligarchs
    – The Saudis
    – The Chinese
    – Etc…

    Trump and the MAGAites are too stupid to plan any decent October Suprise, but those others are not.