Trump’s Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-iowa-lead-shrinks-as-kamala-harris-replaces-joe-biden/75180245007/
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>A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring.
Well that’s interesting. Iowa is potentially now a fucking swing state? Fuck me, never realized that before.
It seems like a lot of states that are traditionally not swing states are now swing states.
Great. Harris shouldn’t spend one second there between now and the election. Swing states. Swing states. Swing states
Iowa becoming a swing state in this election doesn’t surprise me. A very strict abortion law and the addition Walz has helped Harris in Iowa. Walz’s former congressional district in southern MN is very similar to Northern Iowa—and the rest of Iowa as well actually. Of course, it also helps that Harris is an amazing candidate. I’m not sure if they should spend a lot of resources in Iowa. But they already are spending some resources, because the Omaha congressional district reaches some in western Iowa.
Can confirm! I’m pushing 60 and Harris has my money and will get my vote!
This poll is important for what it says about the race and can transcend to other midwestern states. My takeaways:
1) Poll was done September 8-11. Mostly before the debate. Might be slightly worse for Trump if done today
2) RFK is getting 6%. Seems to be hurting Trump slightly more
3) enthusiasm favors Harris slightly (80% vs 74%)
4) Shocking Trump is viewed favorably by 48% vs low 40’s for Harris (fully post debate would be interesting to see)
5) Gender gap is high and young women are more energized than before
The favorability ratings are worrying. Everything else looks as expected or trending better for Harris
The Loomer affair will take some votes from the christofascist as they tolerate indiscretions but publically flaunted may embarrass them.
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Almost within the 3.8% margin of error. And it’s worth noting that both candidates have higher unfavorability than favorability in the poll. But regardless of polls, it’s going to be turnout that matters.
Party of law and order has a 34-time convicted felon as their candidate
Party of family values has a serial cheater, and man currently cheating on his 3rd wife as a candidate
Party of personal responsibility has a man who bankrupted a casino and can not run a charity as their candidate
Party who supports the military has a draft dodger and a mam who called our military “sucker’s and losers”
As an Iowan…this state sucks. Governor Reynolds is an unmitigated disaster. My home town in NE Iowa has more than one home displaying confederate flags. It’s embarrassing.
I’m just here because I like all the attention on Iowa. It seems weird this late into the race.
From the article:
Still, around four out of five voters in both parties now say they are enthusiastic about their candidate. The poll found that 81 per cent of Democrat voters were enthusiastic about Ms Harris, compared to 37 per cent who had expressed the same for Mr Biden.
Pollster Mike Bocian described the change as “astounding”.
The poll also indicated that support for independent and third party candidates, including Robert F Kennedy Jr, is now hurting Trump more, with Ms Harris pulling one point ahead of Trump with Mr Kennedy in the race.
We need that effect in NC. Cut into these red counties. Trump shrinkage.
This neighbor to the South (KC) is very jealous.
I hope Biden sees everything that’s happening as encouragement that he did the right thing.
Remember that the only polls that matter are the ones that have ballot boxes at them. Register and check your registration at vote.gov Vote on Roevember 5th
As tantalizing as it may be, I would temper any expectation that Iowa would go blue in 2024. The state has been in a steadily regressive mode for many years now in its race to the bottom. Its political leaders, starting with Grassley and Reynolds, are anything but. Kansas was in a similar mode when Sam Brownback was governor but voters, eventually, were fed up to the point of saying “enough”. I doubt Iowans have the political spine to do something similar.
Caitlin Clark effect/s
Damn. Never thought Iowa could be in play. If it tightens, Trump will need to spend resources to a state they thought they had in the bag which will help Harris in the swing states.
If Harris wins Iowa, she would only need Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona off the battleground map to be at 271. (She wouldn’t need GA, NC, NV or PA)
C’mon Iowa! We can turn turn Iowa blue again! Let’s do this! Save democracy!
Iowa native no longer there. Yea…nah. It ain’t happening lol
Cautiously optimistic. Careful she does not try to “expand the map” too much, a la Hillary, and lose close states that were supposed to be “in the bag”.
Any these are only the people willing to be polled.
Is this a reflection of how well Harris is doing or just how bad Biden was?
This is fine but I don’t see the point of articles like this. Is it “Harris is a better candidate than Biden?” She might well be but we won’t know for sure until the PA vote comes in. Not Iowa, not Texas, PA. If Harris really jacks up the popular vote by getting every swiftie in California to turn out but loses PA, Trump gets to be president again. Biden won PA. Due in part to the fact that an ocean of racists in western PA were semi comfortable with an old white man they had known for 30 years. Harris is not an old white man they have known for 30 years, which is why she is doing worse in PA than Biden was. Iowa is completely irrelevant. Trump is still going to win it.
My wish, after the election, the DNC begins to set foot in Texas, Florida, and, yes, Iowa. Stop neglecting them and beleive they are winnable. They are winnable in the future, especially after the Republican party will be in shambles if Trump loses. DNC needs to stop focusing on safe regions only and branch out where there is some indication Republicans are losing voters. Republicans did the same thing years ago and it is why they are now in control of the South.
And statistically tied in Alaska, Mississippi and Louisiana as well and down by only 6 points in Kansas, 7 points in Montana
Obama won Iowa. Harris can too.
“A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring.”
That’s quite a swing.
Just want to point out, that in 2020 and 2022, this same poller posted polls for Trump and Grassley that showed a tight race and then the eventual result was no where near their polling.
https://x.com/napervillepol/status/1835295244469842276?s=46&t=MQdFeenbEnggmD6ipWSZDQ
I would like to see another more pulling from the state to draw a trend. But otherwise let’s take this poll, along with all of the others, with a grain of salt. Vote like the Dems are underdogs and make sure people don’t get complacent
Iowa and Ohio tend to be very similar, politically, so hopefully, this is a good sign for my home state, too.
These are the polls that matter
Trump admitted he lost the election in his interview with Lex Fridman. MAGA leader Nick Fuentes and those who faced consequences from Trump’s instigation of the insurrection are passed!
Trump continues to be pro-Putin and in the debate after being asked twice still refused to say Putin was wrong for invading the Ukraine.
FBI and military leaders have said Trump is a risk to National security. There’s a reason Dick Cheney and over 200 Republican leaders are endorsing Harris!!
Trump admitted he lost the election in his interview with Lex Fridman. MAGA leader Nick Fuentes and those who faced consequences from Trump’s instigation of the insurrection are pissed!
Trump continues to be pro-Putin and in the debate after being asked twice still refused to say Putin was wrong for invading the Ukraine.
FBI and military leaders have said Trump is a risk to National security. There’s a reason Dick Cheney and over 200 Republican leaders are endorsing Harris!!
I hope she wins the election and that it’s a decisive victory.