>This sentiment was echoed in the author’s conversation with a National Democratic Institute (NDI) representative who remarked, “What shocks me is that without fail, during the majority of my focus groups, if given the choice to vote between Pashinyan and anyone remotely associated with Russia or the past regimes, even people who used to be staunchly pro-Russian now choose Pashinyan every time.”2 This was further qualified by countless informal conversations with citizens, which revealed most Armenians do not love Pashinyan but vote for him because of a commitment to rejecting Russian-backed candidates who they perceive as a source of the difficulties facing their country.
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>In an interview, Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan said, “The Armenian government is actively seeking ways to secure its borders and maintain stability while navigating the challenges of potentially leaving the CSTO … which requires Armenia to enhance its bilateral relationships with other nations, particularly in the West, to compensate for the resulting security vacuum … with strategic partnerships with Georgia and Iran becoming even more significant.”3 In a subsequent interview, foreign ministry Secretary-General Davit Karapetyan emphasized the critical significance of freezing the country’s CSTO membership, stating, “This freeze means that Armenia is not taking part in any exercises, decision-making, operations, payments, or meetings. … [T]here’s no chance that Armenia is going to reverse freezing its membership in the CSTO, because this security alliance proved to be utterly useless. … Armenia wants to establish effective control over its own security.”
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>In a separate discussion, a representative from Armenia’s National Security Council said, “Armenia realizes that leaving the CSTO means eventually leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which would be economically challenging. … Without having an alternative, you can’t leave [Russia’s] orbit. Now that the Russians have left [Zvartnots airport], the next phase is the withdrawal [of Russian troops] from the Armenian-Iranian border, followed by the Turkish-Armenian border, and the closure of Russian military bases in Armenia.”5 The representative added that “constitutional changes are being considered in the context of decolonization from Russia.”
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>According to Economy Minister Gevork Papoyan, Russia uses the imbalance in the economic relationship between the two countries as a crucial point of leverage over Armenia. In an interview, the minister said, “Greater than 50% of the economy currently depends on Russia overall, with over 80% in the agricultural sector,”7 and added that “Russia tried to intimidate and punish Armenia when it froze relations in the CSTO and had meetings with US officials.”
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>Armenia’s border with Georgia is another crucial piece of the puzzle: its only open transport corridor given that Armenia abides by sanctions on Iran. According to Jrbashyan, “The only country outside of the Eurasian Economic Union with which Armenia has a free trade agreement is Georgia,” which “serves as Armenia’s gateway to the Black Sea, and thus to European and global markets.”
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>This sentiment was echoed in the author’s conversation with a National Democratic Institute (NDI) representative who remarked, “What shocks me is that without fail, during the majority of my focus groups, if given the choice to vote between Pashinyan and anyone remotely associated with Russia or the past regimes, even people who used to be staunchly pro-Russian now choose Pashinyan every time.”2 This was further qualified by countless informal conversations with citizens, which revealed most Armenians do not love Pashinyan but vote for him because of a commitment to rejecting Russian-backed candidates who they perceive as a source of the difficulties facing their country.
…
>In an interview, Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan said, “The Armenian government is actively seeking ways to secure its borders and maintain stability while navigating the challenges of potentially leaving the CSTO … which requires Armenia to enhance its bilateral relationships with other nations, particularly in the West, to compensate for the resulting security vacuum … with strategic partnerships with Georgia and Iran becoming even more significant.”3 In a subsequent interview, foreign ministry Secretary-General Davit Karapetyan emphasized the critical significance of freezing the country’s CSTO membership, stating, “This freeze means that Armenia is not taking part in any exercises, decision-making, operations, payments, or meetings. … [T]here’s no chance that Armenia is going to reverse freezing its membership in the CSTO, because this security alliance proved to be utterly useless. … Armenia wants to establish effective control over its own security.”
…
>In a separate discussion, a representative from Armenia’s National Security Council said, “Armenia realizes that leaving the CSTO means eventually leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which would be economically challenging. … Without having an alternative, you can’t leave [Russia’s] orbit. Now that the Russians have left [Zvartnots airport], the next phase is the withdrawal [of Russian troops] from the Armenian-Iranian border, followed by the Turkish-Armenian border, and the closure of Russian military bases in Armenia.”5 The representative added that “constitutional changes are being considered in the context of decolonization from Russia.”
…
>According to Economy Minister Gevork Papoyan, Russia uses the imbalance in the economic relationship between the two countries as a crucial point of leverage over Armenia. In an interview, the minister said, “Greater than 50% of the economy currently depends on Russia overall, with over 80% in the agricultural sector,”7 and added that “Russia tried to intimidate and punish Armenia when it froze relations in the CSTO and had meetings with US officials.”
…
>Armenia’s border with Georgia is another crucial piece of the puzzle: its only open transport corridor given that Armenia abides by sanctions on Iran. According to Jrbashyan, “The only country outside of the Eurasian Economic Union with which Armenia has a free trade agreement is Georgia,” which “serves as Armenia’s gateway to the Black Sea, and thus to European and global markets.”