Trump went to Montana to specifically try to screw Tester over. Marvelous.
Leksi_The_Great on
Yes, I know it’s Newsweek, but this poll is huge news! Jon Tester’s seat is really the only question heading into November(Sherrod Brown leads by a pretty significant margin), so if you’re in Montana, vote, vote, vote!
ProjectAjax on
I’m shocked this is from Newsweek who usually posts bullshit articles.
TrooperJohn on
It’s ONE outlier poll.
Any good news is welcome, but keeping this seat will be a dogfight.
InsideAside885 on
Another recent poll has him down 5 points. Weird how these states with smaller populations can be so hard to poll.
Das_Man on
Yea this is a major outlier, most polls have Tester back between 4 and 6 points.
LostInBby on
Trump’s going to have to wade back in there and make sure the good folks in Montana understand how shitty their lives will be if voting for Tester helps pave the way for them getting free healthcare.
3rdPlaceYoureFired on
Can’t tell if this an outlier poll due to quality or recency. Does anyone have any background on historical accuracy of this poll in past elections? Tester holding onto this seat would be a huge boost
I-Might-Be-Something on
Keep in mind that 55% of voters also said they would vote for Sheely if it meant the Republicans would control the Senate. So that is something to keep an eye on as this race moves forward. I don’t know how Tester counters that.
This is promising as it’s technically the latest poll, but still an outlier. Sheehy had been polling between +2 and +6 as of Aug 12. Need to wait and see if it’s a trend.
The poll came with this caveat:
>On top of that, if Montana voters knew that their vote would determine control of the U.S. Senate, 55% would vote for the Republican, and just 37% would vote for the Democrat. **Seventeen percent (17%) of Tester’s voters would prefer GOP control of the Senate.**
castion5862 on
Montana’s please vote blue up and down the ticket
tangocat777 on
Straight into my veins, please.
Pale-Worldliness7007 on
November is a long way off don’t get complacent. Everyone needs to vote. 2016 could happen again.
ennuiinmotion on
I’m very worried about Congress. When Democrats lost control of the House everything ground to a halt and their poll numbers tanked. Voters like to see action and new programs that make life better. If Harris wins but Democrats don’t get Congress people will simply blame her for Congress’ inactivity.
mosswick on
Tester won his seat in 2006 in an upset. Every six years since, the GQP has targeted him expecting an easy win. And each time he’s won reelection.
autotldr on
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.newsweek.com/montana-senate-poll-jon-tester-tim-sheehy-1940175) reduced by 79%. (I’m a bot)
*****
> Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat from Montana, has a 5-point lead over his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in a crucial 2024 Senate election, a new poll shows.
> A Napolitan News Service survey of 540 registered voters in Montana found that the incumbent was ahead of the Republican by 49 percent to 44 percent in what the polling group called the "Most important Senate race" of the 2024 elections.
> If control of the Senate comes down to the results of those races and Tester is reelected in Montana but Trump wins the presidency, the GOP will have control in a 50-50 split, with Vice President JD Vance acting as the tiebreaker on votes.
Republicans are being equal to themselves in Montana, pouring their dollars into the campaign of a candidate from a different state who was born into money and has never held any political office anywhere ever. Clearly this multimillionaire is pulling for the average American family. Vote, vote, vote.
ThatBard on
“Can’t win a GOP primary without Trump; can’t win a general *with* him.” 😏
Plow_King on
yes!
JamUpGuy1989 on
So, Trump really fucked up with that horrendous rally then.
AgitatedEconomist192 on
Gotta love that flattop
Gaeneous on
It’s actually crazy that Dems best chance at maintaining senate control is by Jon Tester having to outperform Harris by 20%, and it looks like he can do it!
hodorhodor12 on
Please volunteer or donate to Jon Tester. We need to hold on control of the Senate if we want Kamala to be able to accomplish things.
Would take this one with a large grain of salt but it’s still good news. It’s the first poll with Tester head. The pollster (RMG Research) has an ok rating from 538, #60 in their rankings. The previous trustworthy poll (from Emerson College, ranked #9 at 538) on August 5-6 had Tester down by 2. That’s certainly enough time for polls to swing but doubtful it swung 7 points.
But, if a month from now this holds then indeed that’s good news.
rubbersidedown123 on
People must register and vote!
Glittering_Lunch_776 on
Every congressional race is important. We need the right to lose as many seats as possible, because they will obstruct a Harris presidency using every tool they have, regardless of the situation. Republican control anywhere is harmful to the country as a whole. Period.
MrPisster on
If I have to listen to one more Tim Sheehy ad on YouTube I’m going to shoot myself in the arm in a national park and lie about it!
GBinAZ on
Trump just wasted money flying to Montana to try and take numbers away from tester. Keep up the fight, everyone. It’s finally working
teflong on
Is there a good site that shows the current polling for senate in each open seat, and how that affects the senate map if the polling were accurate?
syynapt1k on
I don’t want to jinx anything, but I have a feeling this election is going to be a strong repudiation of Trump and MAGA – even in unlikely places.
With that said, please make sure you are talking to your friends & family to remind them to check their voter registration every month, to volunteer their time if they can, and to VOTE!
decayed-whately on
Fantastic!
He’s been hitting She/he with the “outsider” label in campaign ads. That really, really lands hard here. Wealthy out-of-staters discovered Montana with the movie “A River Runs Through It,” and they’ve been moving here in droves ever since.
“We have a house in Bozeman, and one in Big Sky. It’s just so much more convenient for our annual three-week ski vacation.” 🖕😡🖕
VictorChristian on
As someone who’s been donating pretty steadily to his campaign, I’m gratified by this headline. Email from campaigns (all of them) can get very “doom and gloom” and I get that’s a tactic to urge donations but it’s good to get good news every so often.
Prior-Present-7764 on
I don’t believe it. If you live in Montana, VOTE!
undermind84 on
Tester is a fucking BOSS!
Novel-Ad-3457 on
If the Creamsicle had a batting average it would be below the Mendoza line!!
comec0rrect on
Yay! I’m in California but donated to Tester and will donate again, so it looks like our efforts are working. Keep pushing!
PDXGuy33333 on
Tester’s challenger is referred to as “Shady Sheedy” is a wealthy carpetbagger who wants to turn Montana into a private outdoor reserve for the ultra wealthy. He is grease incarnate.
overbarking on
The Democrats need *more* than minimum majorities in the House and Senate this time.
Frequent_Daddy on
Wasn’t he literally just five points behind
TAllday on
Holy shit. Let’s go!
ReservoirGods on
I can’t wait to vote for Tester again, and I’m hoping our ballot measure to protect reproductive freedom will also drive Democratic turnout this cycle. That and 4 years of an awful state Senate will hopefully motivate Montana Democrats to show out for Tester.
Eddiebaby7 on
Good thing the Republican Party handed over the RNC and all its cash to Trumps kids! Great move, excellent foresight!
45 Comments
Trump went to Montana to specifically try to screw Tester over. Marvelous.
Yes, I know it’s Newsweek, but this poll is huge news! Jon Tester’s seat is really the only question heading into November(Sherrod Brown leads by a pretty significant margin), so if you’re in Montana, vote, vote, vote!
I’m shocked this is from Newsweek who usually posts bullshit articles.
It’s ONE outlier poll.
Any good news is welcome, but keeping this seat will be a dogfight.
Another recent poll has him down 5 points. Weird how these states with smaller populations can be so hard to poll.
Yea this is a major outlier, most polls have Tester back between 4 and 6 points.
Trump’s going to have to wade back in there and make sure the good folks in Montana understand how shitty their lives will be if voting for Tester helps pave the way for them getting free healthcare.
Can’t tell if this an outlier poll due to quality or recency. Does anyone have any background on historical accuracy of this poll in past elections? Tester holding onto this seat would be a huge boost
Keep in mind that 55% of voters also said they would vote for Sheely if it meant the Republicans would control the Senate. So that is something to keep an eye on as this race moves forward. I don’t know how Tester counters that.
Hell ya. I’m rooting for you, Jon
https://jontester.com/
This is promising as it’s technically the latest poll, but still an outlier. Sheehy had been polling between +2 and +6 as of Aug 12. Need to wait and see if it’s a trend.
The poll came with this caveat:
>On top of that, if Montana voters knew that their vote would determine control of the U.S. Senate, 55% would vote for the Republican, and just 37% would vote for the Democrat. **Seventeen percent (17%) of Tester’s voters would prefer GOP control of the Senate.**
Montana’s please vote blue up and down the ticket
Straight into my veins, please.
November is a long way off don’t get complacent. Everyone needs to vote. 2016 could happen again.
I’m very worried about Congress. When Democrats lost control of the House everything ground to a halt and their poll numbers tanked. Voters like to see action and new programs that make life better. If Harris wins but Democrats don’t get Congress people will simply blame her for Congress’ inactivity.
Tester won his seat in 2006 in an upset. Every six years since, the GQP has targeted him expecting an easy win. And each time he’s won reelection.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.newsweek.com/montana-senate-poll-jon-tester-tim-sheehy-1940175) reduced by 79%. (I’m a bot)
*****
> Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat from Montana, has a 5-point lead over his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in a crucial 2024 Senate election, a new poll shows.
> A Napolitan News Service survey of 540 registered voters in Montana found that the incumbent was ahead of the Republican by 49 percent to 44 percent in what the polling group called the "Most important Senate race" of the 2024 elections.
> If control of the Senate comes down to the results of those races and Tester is reelected in Montana but Trump wins the presidency, the GOP will have control in a 50-50 split, with Vice President JD Vance acting as the tiebreaker on votes.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/1etuygu/democrats_handed_senate_boost_as_jon_tester_five/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ “Version 2.02, ~692485 tl;drs so far.”) | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr “PM’s and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.”) | *Top* *keywords*: **Montana**^#1 **Senate**^#2 **vote**^#3 **percent**^#4 **control**^#5
Republicans are being equal to themselves in Montana, pouring their dollars into the campaign of a candidate from a different state who was born into money and has never held any political office anywhere ever. Clearly this multimillionaire is pulling for the average American family. Vote, vote, vote.
“Can’t win a GOP primary without Trump; can’t win a general *with* him.” 😏
yes!
So, Trump really fucked up with that horrendous rally then.
Gotta love that flattop
It’s actually crazy that Dems best chance at maintaining senate control is by Jon Tester having to outperform Harris by 20%, and it looks like he can do it!
Please volunteer or donate to Jon Tester. We need to hold on control of the Senate if we want Kamala to be able to accomplish things.
https://jontester.com
Would take this one with a large grain of salt but it’s still good news. It’s the first poll with Tester head. The pollster (RMG Research) has an ok rating from 538, #60 in their rankings. The previous trustworthy poll (from Emerson College, ranked #9 at 538) on August 5-6 had Tester down by 2. That’s certainly enough time for polls to swing but doubtful it swung 7 points.
But, if a month from now this holds then indeed that’s good news.
People must register and vote!
Every congressional race is important. We need the right to lose as many seats as possible, because they will obstruct a Harris presidency using every tool they have, regardless of the situation. Republican control anywhere is harmful to the country as a whole. Period.
If I have to listen to one more Tim Sheehy ad on YouTube I’m going to shoot myself in the arm in a national park and lie about it!
Trump just wasted money flying to Montana to try and take numbers away from tester. Keep up the fight, everyone. It’s finally working
Is there a good site that shows the current polling for senate in each open seat, and how that affects the senate map if the polling were accurate?
I don’t want to jinx anything, but I have a feeling this election is going to be a strong repudiation of Trump and MAGA – even in unlikely places.
With that said, please make sure you are talking to your friends & family to remind them to check their voter registration every month, to volunteer their time if they can, and to VOTE!
Fantastic!
He’s been hitting She/he with the “outsider” label in campaign ads. That really, really lands hard here. Wealthy out-of-staters discovered Montana with the movie “A River Runs Through It,” and they’ve been moving here in droves ever since.
“We have a house in Bozeman, and one in Big Sky. It’s just so much more convenient for our annual three-week ski vacation.” 🖕😡🖕
As someone who’s been donating pretty steadily to his campaign, I’m gratified by this headline. Email from campaigns (all of them) can get very “doom and gloom” and I get that’s a tactic to urge donations but it’s good to get good news every so often.
I don’t believe it. If you live in Montana, VOTE!
Tester is a fucking BOSS!
If the Creamsicle had a batting average it would be below the Mendoza line!!
Yay! I’m in California but donated to Tester and will donate again, so it looks like our efforts are working. Keep pushing!
Tester’s challenger is referred to as “Shady Sheedy” is a wealthy carpetbagger who wants to turn Montana into a private outdoor reserve for the ultra wealthy. He is grease incarnate.
The Democrats need *more* than minimum majorities in the House and Senate this time.
Wasn’t he literally just five points behind
Holy shit. Let’s go!
I can’t wait to vote for Tester again, and I’m hoping our ballot measure to protect reproductive freedom will also drive Democratic turnout this cycle. That and 4 years of an awful state Senate will hopefully motivate Montana Democrats to show out for Tester.
Good thing the Republican Party handed over the RNC and all its cash to Trumps kids! Great move, excellent foresight!
[Check out the actual survey here.](https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/08/15/montana-senate-tester-49-sheehy-44/) Newsweek seemed to forget to include a direct link, shocking.
Includes the top line takeaways (which are poorly copied in the terrible Newsweek “article”) and cross tabs on the survey items.
It’s incredible that tester is getting 16% of voters supporting Trump
Inject this into my veins