Iran might determine that delaying an attack is more strategically advantageous, allowing time for Israel’s internal pressures to further destabilise the Netanyahu government. By waiting, Iran may seek to maximise the impact of their eventual strike, striking at a moment when Israel is even more weakened.
https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/the-calculus-behind-irans-delayed-response-to-israeli-provocation/
3 Comments
They’re “delaying the attack” because they don’t have the means to attack (successfully) Israel. They already tried once this year, and failed spectacular at cost to their already-weak/limited arsenal.
That is clearly not happening. Iran is losing the narrative’s momentum. Israel will blame that the delayed attack, if it actually takes place, sabotaged the progress made in peace talks. Iran’s not gonna do much with one attack. Israel gets another ticket to carry on what it’s doing.
I think this time, Iran doesn’t want to make a name sake retaliation like the previous one. If they go without preparation for a long term war or full scaled war they will be no more. So they will go with missiles capable of withstanding full blown war. It all depends on Russia and China to give them latest missiles. US will intercept for sure, so they should be prepared to declare a war and hit US interceptors as well.
So I feel it won’t go until Russia gives approval.