It’s weird, but I hope it stays “slight.” People can’t get complacent, everyone has to keep their foot on the gas.
430_Autogyro on
I’m torn. I like the hot take but I hate Nate Silver.
Spare_Substance5003 on
Advisor: The good news is that we just tripled our chance of winning, sir!
Trump: So what’s the bad news?
Advisor: We had a 0% chance of winning.
BeowulfShaeffer on
Nate Silver on Monday released an updated forecast for the presidential election, and he has Kamala Harris as a slight favorite over Donald Trump. Silver joins Morning Joe to discuss 2024 and his new book ‘On the Edge’.
That’s it. That’s the entire “article”
Winston_the_dog on
Make plans to vote.
StormOk7544 on
Wow, why is Peter Thiel making him do this?
dbag3o1 on
Great cause we have a lot of overnights till election day
• Check your registration here as well. Some states have purged voter rolls and you may need to register again.
• Some states require you to register 30 days before the election you wish to vote in.
• If you have questions check with your local election officials.
StandStillLaddie on
Volunteer. Donate. Vote.
sdf_cardinal on
Wearing a hat on national TV isn’t fooling anyone Nate. I say this as someone who understands your struggle. Just shave your head already.
mike194827 on
Nothing happens unless you actually vote
moodie31 on
Is there a link to the forecast or this just an article talking about the forecast while not giving any actual details of it.
Edit. There is a video. Could not tell on mobile.
NotOnHerb5 on
I want POTUS, house, and senate!!!!
VOTE
AZWxMan on
I’m not sure what a doubled chance is supposed to mean? She already had just over a 50% chance, and obviously you can’t double that. It seems he means the difference between her chance and Trump’s chance has doubled. But, it’s really only a very small increase in her chance of winning.
akd432 on
It’s crazy to think America will end up voting for a black woman, never thought it was possible (I know the race ain’t over yet). But then again, I never thought Obama would win.
Every once in a while, America pleasantly surprises me 🙂
itsgameoverman on
Do not get complacent. Vote, vote, vote.
davechri on
There’s no James Comey this time.
OccurringThought on
Biggest takeaway from this was Democrats need to pay more attention to California.
Ridiculicious71 on
I never pay attention to polls. Not after Hillary
Ambitious-Joke-4695 on
Yeah and I doubled my chances of winning the lottery by buying a second ticket. Pollsters have a worthless language to keep them in the news without saying anything. Voting is all that matters.
AgitatedListen3118 on
I’m not holding my breath. I keep thinking about Nate’s call in 2016.
If there is a big turnout, the chance is strong. However if people assume it’s a done deal, which I hope doesn’t happen, and turnout is low, we will see the Republicans winning.
TheManInTheShack on
If you’re 30 or under and haven’t voted before or haven’t consistently, make a point to vote this time and show the rest of us that you value your citizenship.
MingYong on
Hes on thiel’s payroll so the result must be even more burgeoning than this for him to actually admit this
threehundredthousand on
The nazi hornets nest is wild on twitter the last couple days. I have never seen them go so hard attacking people. They are definitely worried and, of course, the ultranationalists believe that being even more aggressively hateful is what will bring people to their side.
Temassi on
What’s bigger than a wave?
Mtbruning on
Vote. Trust no one and nothing. Register, and then check monthly to make sure you didn’t get “purged by accident”
Brainyviolet on
We need more than just the presidency to reinstate Roe. Show up and vote blue.
GhostOfTimBrewster on
Have pollsters got anything right since 2016?
Honest question,
Hillary was supposed to win.
A Red wave was supposed to happen.
Jorgen_Pakieto on
Still a toss up election. What we really want to do is completely dominate it so that there’s no space for Trump to launch his rigged election campaign.
Pickle_ninja on
I’m excited to get out and vote. I thought 2020 was the end, I’ve been waiting 4 fucking years!
DragonSoundFromMiami on
Trump should do more high profile interviews lol
bazzbj on
Please don’t repeat 2016 ya’ll. Tell your friends and family members to go out and vote.
ThonThaddeo on
We never doubted you, Nate.
executingsalesdaily on
Vote
Stranger-Sun on
Nate Silver is a marketer. Who cares what he thinks?
VOTE VOTE VOTE
tedecristal on
*sigh* Just a reminder (for both sides), from a statistics professor:
**A candidate having an “x” chance of winning is not the same as having “x” percent of support.**
For example, if polling gives some candidate, say 70% prference over 30% for the other, does not mean the first one has a “70%” chance (probability) of winning , it’s more likely (under several standard assumptions) than the **chance of winning** is much much higher (because the probability of observing such poll result given the opposite on the whole population, would be very small).
The problem is that media (and people) usually confuse % of support with probability (chance) of winning
Alternatively: having doubled the chance of winning is not the same as having doubled the amount of supporters).
PromptAcademic4954 on
Any day, Fox will showcase a caravan of immigrant militants careening to the border
RNDASCII on
Did he get paid by the GOP to say this in an effort to suppress dem turnout? Trust no one. Vote.
40 Comments
It’s weird, but I hope it stays “slight.” People can’t get complacent, everyone has to keep their foot on the gas.
I’m torn. I like the hot take but I hate Nate Silver.
Advisor: The good news is that we just tripled our chance of winning, sir!
Trump: So what’s the bad news?
Advisor: We had a 0% chance of winning.
Nate Silver on Monday released an updated forecast for the presidential election, and he has Kamala Harris as a slight favorite over Donald Trump. Silver joins Morning Joe to discuss 2024 and his new book ‘On the Edge’.
That’s it. That’s the entire “article”
Make plans to vote.
Wow, why is Peter Thiel making him do this?
Great cause we have a lot of overnights till election day
When Nate speaks, I listen.
Trump’s ceiling is dropping.
He is shook. The sky is falling.
https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
• Check your registration here as well. Some states have purged voter rolls and you may need to register again.
• Some states require you to register 30 days before the election you wish to vote in.
• If you have questions check with your local election officials.
Volunteer. Donate. Vote.
Wearing a hat on national TV isn’t fooling anyone Nate. I say this as someone who understands your struggle. Just shave your head already.
Nothing happens unless you actually vote
Is there a link to the forecast or this just an article talking about the forecast while not giving any actual details of it.
Edit. There is a video. Could not tell on mobile.
I want POTUS, house, and senate!!!!
VOTE
I’m not sure what a doubled chance is supposed to mean? She already had just over a 50% chance, and obviously you can’t double that. It seems he means the difference between her chance and Trump’s chance has doubled. But, it’s really only a very small increase in her chance of winning.
It’s crazy to think America will end up voting for a black woman, never thought it was possible (I know the race ain’t over yet). But then again, I never thought Obama would win.
Every once in a while, America pleasantly surprises me 🙂
Do not get complacent. Vote, vote, vote.
There’s no James Comey this time.
Biggest takeaway from this was Democrats need to pay more attention to California.
I never pay attention to polls. Not after Hillary
Yeah and I doubled my chances of winning the lottery by buying a second ticket. Pollsters have a worthless language to keep them in the news without saying anything. Voting is all that matters.
I’m not holding my breath. I keep thinking about Nate’s call in 2016.
If there is a big turnout, the chance is strong. However if people assume it’s a done deal, which I hope doesn’t happen, and turnout is low, we will see the Republicans winning.
If you’re 30 or under and haven’t voted before or haven’t consistently, make a point to vote this time and show the rest of us that you value your citizenship.
Hes on thiel’s payroll so the result must be even more burgeoning than this for him to actually admit this
The nazi hornets nest is wild on twitter the last couple days. I have never seen them go so hard attacking people. They are definitely worried and, of course, the ultranationalists believe that being even more aggressively hateful is what will bring people to their side.
What’s bigger than a wave?
Vote. Trust no one and nothing. Register, and then check monthly to make sure you didn’t get “purged by accident”
We need more than just the presidency to reinstate Roe. Show up and vote blue.
Have pollsters got anything right since 2016?
Honest question,
Hillary was supposed to win.
A Red wave was supposed to happen.
Still a toss up election. What we really want to do is completely dominate it so that there’s no space for Trump to launch his rigged election campaign.
I’m excited to get out and vote. I thought 2020 was the end, I’ve been waiting 4 fucking years!
Trump should do more high profile interviews lol
Please don’t repeat 2016 ya’ll. Tell your friends and family members to go out and vote.
We never doubted you, Nate.
Vote
Nate Silver is a marketer. Who cares what he thinks?
VOTE VOTE VOTE
*sigh* Just a reminder (for both sides), from a statistics professor:
**A candidate having an “x” chance of winning is not the same as having “x” percent of support.**
For example, if polling gives some candidate, say 70% prference over 30% for the other, does not mean the first one has a “70%” chance (probability) of winning , it’s more likely (under several standard assumptions) than the **chance of winning** is much much higher (because the probability of observing such poll result given the opposite on the whole population, would be very small).
The problem is that media (and people) usually confuse % of support with probability (chance) of winning
Alternatively: having doubled the chance of winning is not the same as having doubled the amount of supporters).
Any day, Fox will showcase a caravan of immigrant militants careening to the border
Did he get paid by the GOP to say this in an effort to suppress dem turnout? Trust no one. Vote.