The Modi-Putin Summit Wasn’t All Bad News for Washington

Submission Statement:

ASSERTION:
Why the “Russia factor” is a manageable challenge for the U.S.-India partnership.

REASONS:

FIRST:
First, Modi’s visit, with all its pageantry, was meant to boost a partnership that has less favorable trend lines than it used to. Russia remains India’s largest arms supplier, but in recent years, India has decreased its share of Russian arms imports while increasing its share from the United States. (Notably, no new arms deals were announced during Modi’s visit.) India is also diversifying its pool of arms suppliers through stepped-up arms trade with France and Israel.

SECOND:
Additionally, India and Russia are diverging on their geopolitical alignments. New Delhi is moving closer to the West: It’s pursuing unprecedented levels of security cooperation with Washington and embracing its Indo-Pacific strategy, which Moscow rejects. Russia, by contrast, is moving closer to China, India’s main strategic competitor, and flirting more frequently with Pakistan, India’s perennial rival.

THIRD:
Furthermore, India opposes Russia’s war in Ukraine. The conflict has hurt India’s food and energy security, brought Russia closer to China, and tested India’s policy of balancing ties. Although New Delhi has not condemned the war, it has repeatedly called for it to end—a message that Modi delivered directly (and not for the first time) to Putin this week. Putin won’t heed Modi’s pleas for peace, but they still strengthen international pressure on Russia to de-escalate.

FOURTH:
Finally, the India-Russia partnership actually serves as a modest check on a growing Russia-China relationship—a development that worries Washington as much as it does New Delhi. India is one of Russia’s few powerful friends that isn’t China. Even as it becomes more reliant on Beijing for economic and defense support, Moscow can’t afford to jeopardize its time-tested commercial and defense ties with New Delhi. That means there will be limits to what Moscow and Beijing describe as their “no limits” partnership—including, most likely, an unwillingness from Russia to back China in the event of an India-China conflict.

CONCLUSION:
The Modi-Putin summit made for an awkward few days for U.S.-India relations. But it also provided a reminder that the Russia factor is a manageable challenge—and not a paralyzing problem—for the partnership between the world’s two biggest democracies.