China’s South Sea Aggression Provokes Regional Pushback

Submission Statement: This is another article about why the situation in the South China Sea is concerning. Marcos clearly made the decision to embark on a more confrontational relationship with a superpower despite the risks because he felt he could rely on the American mutual defense treaty, and also he likely feels his actions bring more attention to the issue and will one day force China to back down from its maximalist claims. After all, Duterte’s appeasement policy only caused minor modifications in Chinese coercion.

The reason why China behaves so irrationally is listed in the article: Xi Jinping made the restoration of Chinese sovereignty, territorial integrity, and great power status integral to his political program in 2013. And this includes maximalist interpretations of territorial disputes, whether in Taiwan, the South China Sea, or Himilayas. Even if he realizes (which he likely does) that a hardline stance angers neighboring countries, he has to push ahead or else he looks weak, thus endangering his legitimacy.

In short, all this conflict is because of one man’s serious insecurities. For any autocrat, domestic control always comes before international reputation. The only question is whether China will one day be tempted to use outright force to gain control of the South China Sea or whether talk of outright conflict is just clickbait in the interests of the MIC.

Speculatory Question: I know Donald Trump likes to talk tough on China, but he doesn’t seem to care much about China’s territorial disputes and international law. So, if the United States were to retreat to a more isolationist posture as much of the MAGA crew would like, would China see a green light to not only attack the rusted ship at the Philippine Shoal, but also use force to stop Vietnamese, Malaysian, and Indonesian energy projects?