In the future, does bosnia-herzegovina is more likely to break up with probably the croats joining croatia and the serbs joining serbia or to instead have a more national identity where they are mostly bosnians ?
It seems low key similar to yugoslavia where multiple people who werent exactly fond of eachother are forced to stay in one state and the two outcomes are
1: it succeed with a national identity
2: it fail and split because one group has a bit more power than the others (who dont really considers themselves the same as eachother)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnia_and_Herzegovina
3 Comments
Split would be better. Some to Croatia, some to Serbia and Muslims can have the rest.
I don’t think NATO would support giving partner territory (I realize Bosnia isn’t itself a member of NATO) to a Russian ally (Serbia). But in general, I don’t think international borders are sacrosanct and am open to their being modified peacefully.
I doubt that anyone would want to break the Dayton agreement and risk reopening the Pandoras Box in any way. All sides are aware that a regional and international agreement on new borders would be hard to reach. Also nations that enabled the Dayton agreement in the first place would unlikely allow it to be breached that easily as it’s too much of a threat to destabilise the region or even lead to conflicts.
Even if let’s say all were to agree on a peaceful separation, I don’t know how economically viable those regions would be for the mentioned states, mainly for Croatia?
So all in all, I don’t see the situation in Bosnia changing any time soon.